Al-Fayha 2-4 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Al-Fayha take on Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Fayha have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Fayha have posted 2W 5D 3L at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Damac (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.50 for Damac. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Al-Fayha 0W, Damac 2W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Damac 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Damac 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.97 xG and Damac 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.662 / defence 0.791 | Damac attack 0.827 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.475. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.791 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Al-Fayha games / 44 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 34% | Damac 33%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Damac 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 30% | Damac 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 34% | Damac 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Al-Fayha 0.97 / Damac 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.662 / def 0.791 | Damac attack 0.827 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Damac xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Damac kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Damac kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Al-Fayha 2 - 4 Damac.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Damac part of?
Al-Fayha vs Damac is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 33% chance of winning, Damac a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Al-Fayha and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 2 | Damac 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Damac in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Damac (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Fayha's attack rating (0.66) and Damac's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.83x) against Al-Fayha's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.92
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
1.93
0.96
Damac xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 14.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 0.96 for Damac, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fayha come into this having played 44 games, going 12W 16D 16L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 1.23 PPG from 44 outings (13W 15D 16L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Al-Fayha against 1.23 for Damac. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Fayha's home form reads 5W 9D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.95 points per game from 22 outings (5W 6D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.30 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 12W 16D 16L in their last 44 games (1.18 PPG), while Damac have gone 13W 15D 16L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Damac away?
Al-Fayha's home record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.09 PPG; Damac away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 15 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
4
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Damac?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 1, Damac have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2026, when Damac 3-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fayha see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 36%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Al-Fayha) and 50% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 50% of games; Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Damac?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 54% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 50% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Damac tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Damac in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al-Fayha 2-4 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.97 xG and Damac 0.96 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al-Fayha beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Damac outscored their 0.96 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.66 / defence 0.79 against Damac attack 0.83 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 33% | Draw 34% | Damac 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 46%, Damac 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Damac's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.18 PPG, Damac 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Damac (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.