Al-Ahli Jeddah 0-0 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Al Shabab travel to Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium to take on Al-Ahli Jeddah. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 6W 1D 0L at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium — 2.71 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Al-Ahli Jeddah) versus 1.30 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1 for Al Shabab and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jun 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
Al Shabab trading profile (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ahli Jeddah 62% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 69% | Al Shabab 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.074 / defence 0.818 | Al Shabab attack 0.847 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.444. Data: 13 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 43 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al Shabab 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Ahli Jeddah 43% | Al Shabab 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 / Al Shabab 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.074 / def 0.818 | Al Shabab attack 0.847 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Al Shabab xG
55%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah 0 - 0 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 59% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 1W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Al Shabab (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack rating (1.07) and Al Shabab's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.30
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
2.97
1.00
Al Shabab xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
40.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.00 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 13 outings, Al-Ahli Jeddah have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 8W 2D 3L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Shabab.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Ahli Jeddah have posted 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Al-Ahli Jeddah are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Shabab's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.23 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ahli Jeddah have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Shabab in 62%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.71 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2026, when Al-Ahli Jeddah won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 3, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al Shabab 2-5 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 43%, Al Shabab 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 71% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Al Shabab in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent matches and 57% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 71% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Ahli Jeddah's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Shabab drew 0-0 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.97 xG and Al Shabab 1.00 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al Shabab landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Al Shabab attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ahli Jeddah 59% | Draw 23% | Al Shabab 18%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ahli Jeddah 69%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Shabab's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.