Al Khaleej Saihat 2-2 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Al Okhdood travel to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al Khaleej Saihat. The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 March 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Khaleej Saihat stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al Okhdood — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Al Khaleej Saihat) versus 1.30 (Al Okhdood). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Al Khaleej Saihat, 0 for Al Okhdood and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Al Khaleej Saihat winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Khaleej Saihat in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 56% versus Al Okhdood 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 44% | Al Okhdood 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.863 / defence 0.887 | Al Okhdood attack 0.638 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.472. Al Okhdood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Al Khaleej Saihat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 23 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 53% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 20%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Al Okhdood 5.00. Al Khaleej Saihat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Khaleej Saihat are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 50% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 53% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.51 / Al Okhdood 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.863 / def 0.887 | Al Okhdood attack 0.638 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Al Okhdood xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 14 March 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Al Khaleej Saihat 2 - 2 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 53% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
Record (1 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 0 | Al Okhdood 0W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.86) and Al Okhdood's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Khaleej Saihat's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.66
20%
4.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.34
0.83
Al Okhdood xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.96
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 0.83 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Al Khaleej Saihat have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 7W 6D 10L record — L-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Okhdood's form line: 7W 2D 14L from 23 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Khaleej Saihat on 1.17 PPG, Al Okhdood on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (3W 4D 4L).
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Khaleej Saihat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.83 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 7W 2D 14L in their last 23 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.18 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Khaleej Saihat's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
2
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 3, Al Okhdood have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Al Okhdood 3-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 54%, Al Okhdood 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 46% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 36% of games; Al Okhdood in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 46% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 46% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Okhdood finished level at 2-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.51 xG and Al Okhdood 0.83 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.86 / defence 0.89 against Al Okhdood attack 0.64 / defence 1.21, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 53% | Draw 27% | Al Okhdood 20%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 44%, Al Okhdood 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.17 PPG, Al Okhdood 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.