Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Damac.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac meet at Kingdom Arena in Pro League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 3.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 10W 0D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Damac (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Damac's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's 3.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Damac's 1.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Damac managing 0 and 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2023, ended Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–1 Damac — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Damac half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 43% versus Damac 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55% | Damac 49%). Note also that Damac surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Al-Hilal Saudi FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Damac 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.618 / defence 0.645 | Damac attack 0.873 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.471. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.618 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have a tight defence (rating 0.645), which is pulling Damac's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 53 games and Damac's last 53.
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% | Draw 20% | Damac 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.48 | Draw 5.00 | Damac 7.99. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 10 home games and Damac's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Damac 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, matchday 24 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% | Draw 20% | Damac 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 / Damac 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.618 / def 0.645 | Damac attack 0.873 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Damac xG
50%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac FAQs
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac is a Pro League fixture (matchday 24) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 68% chance of winning, Damac a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack at 1.62x the league average against Damac's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Damac's attack (0.87x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's last 53 games and Damac's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
68%
1.48
20%
5.00
13%
7.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.99
0.83
Damac xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
7.99
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
29%
3.39
1%
69.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.83 for Damac, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 38W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Damac's form line: 18W 16D 19L from 53 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.38 PPG from their last 26 home games (19W 5D 2L).
On the road, Damac have gone 7W 7D 12L from their last 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.34 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.32 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (Home) vs Damac (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac Form FAQs
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 38W 10D 5L in their last 53 games (2.34 PPG), while Damac have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Damac away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.38 PPG; Damac away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Damac been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Damac in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 28 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Damac — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
0
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, Damac have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2026: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Damac.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Damac 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 46% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Damac in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Damac Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 54% of Damac's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 46% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Damac matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 65% of Damac's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Hilal Saudi FC edge out Damac 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Damac 2-1 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.17 xG and Damac 0.83 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.62 / defence 0.65 against Damac attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 68% | Draw 20% | Damac 13%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%, Damac 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Damac's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.