Al-Fayha 1-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Fayha at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Fayha face Al Riyadh.

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Analysis & Preview

Al Riyadh travel to Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium to take on Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Friday 15 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Fayha stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Al Riyadh have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Riyadh's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Fayha at 1.50 PPG versus Al Riyadh's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Al-Fayha have won 1, Al Riyadh 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2023, ended Al-Fayha 3–1 Al Riyadh — a Al-Fayha win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al-Fayha trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 36% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

Al Riyadh trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 61% versus Al Riyadh 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 61% | Al Riyadh 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.60 xG and Al Riyadh 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.852 / defence 1.118 | Al Riyadh attack 0.773 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.490. Al Riyadh's defence rating of 1.316 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al Riyadh's attack rating of 0.773 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 53 games and Al Riyadh's last 23.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 44% | Draw 25% | Al Riyadh 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.26 | Draw 3.94 | Al Riyadh 3.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al Riyadh's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Riyadh 60% (last 10 away games).

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