Al-Hazm 1-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model rates Al Taee at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Hazm face Al Taee.

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Match Analysis

Al-Hazm host Al Taee at Ar-Rass Stadium in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 16 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 5 games, Al-Hazm have gone 0W 2D 3L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taee stand at 2W 0D 8L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Al Taee have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Hazm at 0.40 PPG versus Al Taee's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Al-Hazm's games and 60% of Al Taee's (from Al-Hazm's last 5 games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Al-Hazm, 2 for Al Taee and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jun 2022, ended Al-Hazm 0–3 Al Taee — a Al Taee win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.

Al Taee in-play and half-time data (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 60% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 60% of Al-Hazm's games and 0% of Al Taee's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al-Hazm 40% | Al Taee 20%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 1.20 xG and Al Taee 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.751 / defence 1.465 | Al Taee attack 0.761 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.430. Al-Hazm's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.59. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.465 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taee's projected output up. Data: built from Al-Hazm's last 5 games and Al Taee's last 35.

Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 29% | Draw 25% | Al Taee 47%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 3.49 | Draw 4.04 | Al Taee 2.15. Al Taee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Taee are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Hazm's last 5 games and Al Taee's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Hazm 60% (last 5 games) | Al Taee 60% (last 10 away games).

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