Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al Taee in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Thursday 21 September 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Ettifaq's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Al Taee have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Taee have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taee's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Ettifaq's 1.70 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Al Taee's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Taee, who have claimed 4 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Al Taee winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Taee have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al Taee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 42% versus Al Taee 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 44% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG and Al Taee 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / defence 0.828 | Al Taee attack 0.709 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.439. Data: 36 Al-Ettifaq games / 36 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 24% | Al Taee 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taee 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Al Taee lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Ettifaq carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ettifaq 50% | Al Taee 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Sep 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 24% | Al Taee 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 46% | xG Al-Ettifaq 1.68 / Al Taee 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ettifaq attack 1.081 / def 0.828 | Al Taee attack 0.709 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.439 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Al Taee xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 21 September 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee?
Al-Ettifaq 4 - 3 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ettifaq a 57% chance of winning, Al Taee a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Ettifaq 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 4W.
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee in?
Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Ettifaq's attack at 1.08x the league average against Al Taee's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.71x) against Al-Ettifaq's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
57%
1.75
24%
4.14
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Al-Ettifaq xG
Total xG
2.52
0.84
Al Taee xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
28.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Al-Ettifaq and 0.84 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Ettifaq come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 8D 14L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.14 PPG from 36 outings (12W 5D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taee, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.14 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al-Ettifaq's home form reads 9W 4D 5L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.72 points per game from 18 outings (3W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Ettifaq are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.22 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
Al Taee
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 12W 5D 19L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ettifaq at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Ettifaq's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ettifaq at home: 1.72 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Al-Ettifaq or Al Taee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ettifaq have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Al Taee in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ettifaq have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al-Ettifaq
1
Draws
4
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, Al Taee have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Al Taee 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ettifaq 50%, Al Taee 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Ettifaq) and 56% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Taee in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ettifaq home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ettifaq play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent matches and 56% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ettifaq vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Ettifaq's recent games and 56% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Ettifaq and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Ettifaq have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al Taee 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Taee 4-3 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ettifaq 1.68 xG and Al Taee 0.84 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Taee outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ettifaq attack 1.08 / defence 0.83 against Al Taee attack 0.71 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ettifaq 57% | Draw 24% | Al Taee 19%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ettifaq 44%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Taee's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ettifaq 1.39 PPG, Al Taee 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.