Al-Fayha 0-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Fayha at 51% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fayha vs Al Shabab encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium plays host to Al-Fayha versus Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 6). Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Fayha's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Al-Fayha have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Al Shabab have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al Shabab away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Al-Fayha's favour (1.40 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head sample leans to Al Shabab, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.7 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2023, ended Al-Fayha 2–3 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Al Shabab have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 49% versus Al Shabab 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 46% | Al Shabab 66%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Al-Fayha surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Al Shabab have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.57 xG and Al Shabab 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.849 / defence 0.760 | Al Shabab attack 0.915 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.391. Al Shabab's defence rating of 1.341 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Fayha's projected output up. Al-Fayha have a tight defence (rating 0.760), which is pulling Al Shabab's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Fayha's last 35 games and Al Shabab's last 35.

Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 51% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 23%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 1.95 | Draw 3.95 | Al Shabab 4.30. Al-Fayha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Al-Fayha carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.

On the Poisson output, Al-Fayha are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fayha if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Al-Fayha's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches point the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Fayha 30% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 80% (last 10 away games).

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