Al-Fateh 0-1 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Fateh at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al Taee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fateh host Al Taee at Al Fateh Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fateh — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fateh's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Al Fateh Club Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Fateh Club Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taee stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee away from home this season: 0W 1D 9L from 10 away games — 0.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Fateh are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Al Taee have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Al-Fateh's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Mar 2023, ended 2–3 with Al Taee winning.
It is worth noting that Al Taee have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Al Taee in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 57% versus Al Taee 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 64% | Al Taee 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 2.40 xG and Al Taee 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.131 / defence 0.960 | Al Taee attack 0.741 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.496. Al Taee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Al-Fateh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Fateh games / 44 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 66% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Al Taee 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Fateh (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.40 / 1.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Al Taee lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Fateh carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 70% | Al Taee 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 66% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 60% | xG Al-Fateh 2.40 / Al Taee 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.131 / def 0.960 | Al Taee attack 0.741 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Taee xG
60%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Taee kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taee kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Al-Fateh 0 - 1 Al Taee.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 66% chance of winning, Al Taee a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fateh 0W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 4W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taee in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.40. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.05
14%
7.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
3.46
1.06
Al Taee xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
7.01
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
9%
10.99
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
1%
77.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.06 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fateh come into this having played 44 games, going 20W 7D 17L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Taee sit at 1.09 PPG from 44 outings (14W 6D 24L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Al Taee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al-Fateh's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Taee have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (3W 4D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Fateh come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.34 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 20W 7D 17L in their last 44 games (1.52 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 14W 6D 24L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Taee away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.41 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al Taee go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al Taee specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
0
Draws
6
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Taee have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Al Taee 3-1 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Taee?
Al Taee have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 50%, Al Taee 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al-Fateh) and 59% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Taee in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Taee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 54% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 59% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Taee tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Taee defy the odds to beat Al-Fateh 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taee beat Al-Fateh 0-1 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 2.40 xG and Al Taee 1.06 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al-Fateh fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.13 / defence 0.96 against Al Taee attack 0.74 / defence 1.36, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 66% | Draw 20% | Al Taee 14%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Al Taee win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 64%, Al Taee 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Fateh arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Al Taee winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.