Al-Ettifaq 1-2 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ettifaq vs Al-Fayha encounter.

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Full Analysis

Al Ettifaq Club Stadium plays host to Al-Ettifaq versus Al-Fayha in Pro League (matchday 30). Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Al-Ettifaq (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Al-Ettifaq at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Al-Fayha have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Al-Fayha away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Al-Ettifaq against 1.90 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Al-Ettifaq, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Al-Fayha — Al-Fayha have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.4 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Al-Ettifaq 0–0 Al-Fayha — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Al-Ettifaq an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading

Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ettifaq 41% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ettifaq 39% | Al-Fayha 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ettifaq 1.42 xG and Al-Fayha 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ettifaq attack 0.823 / defence 0.798 | Al-Fayha attack 1.035 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.418. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Ettifaq's projected output up. Al-Ettifaq have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Al-Fayha's projected output down. Data: built from Al-Ettifaq's last 59 games and Al-Fayha's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al-Ettifaq 42% | Draw 28% | Al-Fayha 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ettifaq 2.38 | Draw 3.63 | Al-Fayha 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Al-Ettifaq 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ettifaq if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ettifaq 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Fayha 80% (last 10 away games).

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