Al-Ittihad FC 0-0 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Ittihad FC face Al Taawon.

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Full Analysis

King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al Taawon in Pro League (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 5 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Al-Ittihad FC's record over their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Taawon (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al Taawon have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Al-Ittihad FC, 1.50 for Al Taawon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 70% of Al Taawon's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended Al-Ittihad FC 1–1 Al Taawon — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Al Taawon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 45% versus Al Taawon 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Al Taawon 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Al Taawon 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.266 / defence 1.019 | Al Taawon attack 1.020 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.522. Al-Ittihad FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.266 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Ittihad FC's last 56 games and Al Taawon's last 56.

Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 42% | Draw 23% | Al Taawon 35%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.41 | Draw 4.36 | Al Taawon 2.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.73 / 1.58) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Ittihad FC's last 10 home games and Al Taawon's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Ittihad FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Taawon 70% (last 10 away games).

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