Al-Fayha 2-2 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 39%, yet in-form Al-Fayha provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Fayha host Al-Fateh at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 9 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Fayha — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Fateh stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Al-Fateh's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al-Fayha are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Al-Fayha hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Al-Fateh, with 2 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Al-Fayha winning.
The historical record gives Al-Fayha a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al-Fayha in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Al-Fateh in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 55% versus Al-Fateh 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 55% | Al-Fateh 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.868 / defence 1.033 | Al-Fateh attack 1.046 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.378. Data: 60 Al-Fayha games / 60 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 39%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fateh 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Fateh at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al-Fayha (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 50% | Al-Fateh 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 9 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Al-Fayha 1.38 / Al-Fateh 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.868 / def 1.033 | Al-Fateh attack 1.046 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Al-Fateh xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 9 May 2024 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha 2 - 2 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 34% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Fayha 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Fateh 0W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Fayha's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.72
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.86
1.49
Al-Fateh xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
10%
10.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.49 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Fayha come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 17D 24L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Al-Fateh sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (24W 12D 24L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fayha on 1.23 PPG, Al-Fateh on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al-Fayha's home form reads 8W 10D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fateh have taken 1.48 points per game from 29 outings (13W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.63 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Current Season
Al-Fateh
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Fateh's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.17 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Fayha go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2023, when Al-Fayha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Fayha
5
Draws
0
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 5, Al-Fateh have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Al-Fayha 2-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh?
Al-Fayha have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fayha 41%, Al-Fateh 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Al-Fayha and 79% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Al-Fayha's games and 69% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Al-Fayha's matches and 79% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Fayha and Al-Fateh finished level at 2-2 at Al Majma'ah Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 1.38 xG and Al-Fateh 1.49 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against Al-Fateh attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 34% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 39%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 55%, Al-Fateh 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fayha 1.23 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.