Abha 3-2 Al Baten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Abha face Al Baten.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al Baten at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 9 April 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Abha stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Abha's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Al Baten have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Al Baten have posted 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Abha 0.80 PPG, Al Baten 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Abha have won 2, Al Baten 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Oct 2022, ended Abha 3–1 Al Baten — a Abha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al Baten in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 56% versus Al Baten 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 52% | Al Baten 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.78 xG and Al Baten 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.983 / defence 1.051 | Al Baten attack 0.678 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.317. Al Baten's defence rating of 1.272 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Abha's projected output up. Al Baten's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Abha's last 52 games and Al Baten's last 52.
Result probabilities: Abha 56% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 19%. Fair-value odds: Abha 1.78 | Draw 3.97 | Al Baten 5.39. The model has a clear lean to Abha (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Abha at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al Baten's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 70% (last 10 home games) | Al Baten 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Baten | Competition: Pro League, matchday 23 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 56% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Abha 1.78 / Al Baten 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.983 / def 1.051 | Al Baten attack 0.678 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: Abha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Abha xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al Baten xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Abha vs Al Baten FAQs
What time does Abha vs Al Baten kick off?
Abha vs Al Baten kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Baten?
Abha 3 - 2 Al Baten.
Where is Abha vs Al Baten being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Baten part of?
Abha vs Al Baten is a Pro League fixture (matchday 23) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Baten?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 56% chance of winning, Al Baten a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Baten?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Abha and Al Baten will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Abha vs Al Baten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Abha's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Al Baten's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.78. The same calculation in reverse, Al Baten's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Abha's last 52 games and Al Baten's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
56%
1.78
25%
3.97
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Abha xG
Total xG
2.72
0.94
Al Baten xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
3%
32.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Abha vs Al Baten Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Baten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Baten expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Abha and 0.94 for Al Baten, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Baten?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Abha come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 11D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Al Baten sit at 0.87 PPG from 52 outings (11W 12D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Abha on 1.13 PPG, Al Baten on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Abha's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across their last 26 home games, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Baten have taken 0.46 points per game from their last 26 away games (2W 6D 18L). That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Baten's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Abha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Abha are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Al Baten are on 0.90 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
Abha (Home) vs Al Baten (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Abha
Blended
Al Baten
Blended
❓ Abha vs Al Baten Form FAQs
What form are Abha and Al Baten in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 16W 11D 25L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Al Baten have gone 11W 12D 29L in their last 52 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Baten away?
Abha's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.58 PPG; Al Baten away: 0.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 9 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Abha have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Abha's record when hosting Al Baten specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Abha
0
Draws
1
Al Baten
Recent Meetings
❓ Abha vs Al Baten H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Baten?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Abha have won 3, Al Baten have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Baten last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 April 2023: Abha 3-2 Al Baten.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Baten?
Abha have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Abha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Al Baten see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Abha 62%, Al Baten 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Abha) and 46% (Al Baten).
On the defensive side: Al Baten in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Baten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Abha vs Al Baten Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Abha and Al Baten matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Abha's recent matches and 38% of Al Baten's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Abha and Al Baten matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Abha's recent games and 46% of Al Baten's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Abha and Al Baten matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Abha's recent matches and 54% of Al Baten's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Baten 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Baten 3-2 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.78 xG and Al Baten 0.94 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Abha beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Baten outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Al Baten attack 0.68 / defence 1.27, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 56% | Draw 25% | Al Baten 19%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 52%, Al Baten 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al Baten's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Abha 1.13 PPG, Al Baten 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Abha win broke the near-deadlock. Abha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Al Baten (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.