Al Baten 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC make the trip to Al-Batin FC Stadium to face Al Baten in Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 14 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Al Baten (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Baten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Baten's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Al-Batin FC Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC are 1.00 PPG clear of Al Baten in recent Pro League fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Baten lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2022, ended 1–3 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Baten — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Baten 43% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Baten 51% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Baten 1.20 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Baten attack 0.902 / defence 1.060 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.257 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.358. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Al Baten games / 53 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Baten 24% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Al Baten 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.00. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Al Baten 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Al-Batin FC Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 14 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Baten 24% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Al Baten 1.20 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al Baten attack 0.902 / def 1.060 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.257 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Al Baten xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 April 2023 at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Baten 1 - 0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Batin FC Stadium.
What competition is Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Baten a 24% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Al Baten 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1W.
What form are Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Baten (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Baten's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.26x) against Al Baten's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
24%
4.26
26%
3.79
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Al Baten xG
Total xG
3.00
1.81
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.26
24%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
4%
25.98
15%
6.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.4 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Baten and 1.81 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Baten come into this having played 53 games, going 11W 12D 30L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Al Baten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.13 PPG from 53 outings (33W 14D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.28 PPG clear of Al Baten — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Baten's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Al Baten are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.08 points per game from 26 outings (15W 9D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Baten are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.00 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Baten
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Baten have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 games (0.85 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 14D 6L in their last 53 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Baten at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Baten at home: 1.27 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.08 PPG.
Have Al Baten or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Baten have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Baten have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Al Baten
2
Draws
1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Baten have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Al Baten 1-0 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Baten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Baten 46%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Al Baten) and 50% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC).
On the defensive side: Al Baten keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 42%; Al Baten have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Baten home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Baten play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Al Baten's recent matches and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Baten vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Al Baten's recent games and 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Baten and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Baten have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Baten defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Baten beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 at Al-Batin FC Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Baten 1.20 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.81 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Baten attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.26 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Baten 24% | Draw 26% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Al Baten win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Baten 51%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Baten's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Al Baten winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Baten (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.