Damac 2-2 Al-Adalah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Damac at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al-Adalah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Adalah make the trip to Dhamak Club Stadium to face Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Monday 10 April 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Damac (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Adalah have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Adalah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Adalah's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Damac, 0.90 for Al-Adalah — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Damac lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Damac winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Al-Adalah — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 59% versus Al-Adalah 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 54% | Al-Adalah 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.55 xG and Al-Adalah 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.820 / defence 0.951 | Al-Adalah attack 0.819 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.308. Al-Adalah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Damac games / 22 Al-Adalah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Adalah 23%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Adalah 4.35. Damac hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Damac 50% | Al-Adalah 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al-Adalah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Adalah 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Damac 1.55 / Al-Adalah 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.820 / def 0.951 | Al-Adalah attack 0.819 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Damac (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Damac xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Al-Adalah xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al-Adalah kick off?
Damac vs Al-Adalah kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al-Adalah?
Damac 2 - 2 Al-Adalah.
Where is Damac vs Al-Adalah being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al-Adalah part of?
Damac vs Al-Adalah is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al-Adalah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 48% chance of winning, Al-Adalah a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al-Adalah?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Damac and Al-Adalah will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al-Adalah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Adalah?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 1W | Draws 0 | Al-Adalah 0W.
What form are Damac and Al-Adalah in?
Damac (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Al-Adalah (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Damac's attack rating (0.82) and Al-Adalah's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Adalah's attack (0.82x) against Damac's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
48%
2.10
29%
3.40
23%
4.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Damac xG
Total xG
2.56
1.02
Al-Adalah xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.34
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
20.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al-Adalah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Damac and Al-Adalah expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Damac and 1.02 for Al-Adalah, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al-Adalah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Damac's recent record stands at 7W 7D 8L from 22 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Adalah, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 13L across 22 games — 0.77 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Adalah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Damac by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Adalah heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Damac have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Adalah's away record stands at 1W 3D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Adalah are on 0.77 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al-Adalah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al-Adalah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 7W 7D 8L in their last 22 games (1.27 PPG), while Al-Adalah have gone 4W 5D 13L in their last 22 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al-Adalah away?
Damac's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.45 PPG; Al-Adalah away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Damac
1
Draws
0
Al-Adalah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al-Adalah?
From 2 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al-Adalah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al-Adalah last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2023, when Damac 2-2 Al-Adalah.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al-Adalah?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al-Adalah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 54%, Al-Adalah 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Damac) and 54% (Al-Adalah).
On the defensive side: Damac keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Damac have failed to score in 27% of games; Al-Adalah in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al-Adalah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al-Adalah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Damac's recent matches and 54% of Al-Adalah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al-Adalah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Damac's recent games and 54% of Al-Adalah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al-Adalah tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Al-Adalah in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al-Adalah share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac and Al-Adalah finished level at 2-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.55 xG and Al-Adalah 1.02 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al-Adalah outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Al-Adalah attack 0.82 / defence 1.32, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 48% | Draw 29% | Al-Adalah 23%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 54%, Al-Adalah 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Adalah's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Damac arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Adalah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.