Fakel 1-1 Dynamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs Dynamo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Dynamo at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Fakel, Fakel have gone 2W 7D 1L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Fakel. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dynamo are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fakel have won 1, Dynamo 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 1–3 with Dynamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fakel in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 4% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Dynamo in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 38% versus Dynamo 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 29% | Dynamo 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.84 xG and Dynamo 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.638 / defence 0.776 | Dynamo attack 1.421 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.279. Fakel's attack strength of 0.638 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Dynamo have an above-average attack strength of 1.421 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Fakel's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Fakel games / 45 Dynamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 19% | Draw 33% | Dynamo 47%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 5.26 | Draw 3.03 | Dynamo 2.13. Dynamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 30% | Dynamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Dynamo | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 19% | Draw 33% | Dynamo 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Fakel 0.84 / Dynamo 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.638 / def 0.776 | Dynamo attack 1.421 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Dynamo xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Dynamo kick off?
Fakel vs Dynamo kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Dynamo?
Fakel 1 - 1 Dynamo.
Where is Fakel vs Dynamo being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Dynamo part of?
Fakel vs Dynamo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 19% chance of winning, Dynamo a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fakel and Dynamo will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Dynamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dynamo?
Record (5 meetings): Fakel 1W | Draws 3 | Dynamo 1W.
What form are Fakel and Dynamo in?
Fakel (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Dynamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Fakel vs Dynamo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.64x the league average against Dynamo's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dynamo's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
19%
5.18
33%
2.99
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.25
1.41
Dynamo xG
5.18
19%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
5%
21.21
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.8 | 10.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Dynamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fakel and Dynamo expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Fakel and 1.41 for Dynamo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Dynamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fakel come into this having played 45 games, going 9W 17D 19L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dynamo sit at 1.91 PPG from 45 outings (25W 11D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Fakel — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fakel's home form reads 5W 12D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Dynamo have taken 1.73 points per game from 22 outings (10W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fakel are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Dynamo are on 1.87 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo in 67%.
Defensively: Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Dynamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Dynamo in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 9W 17D 19L in their last 45 games (0.98 PPG), while Dynamo have gone 25W 11D 9L in their last 45 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Dynamo away?
Dynamo's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.23 PPG; Dynamo away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Fakel or Dynamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dynamo in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fakel's record when hosting Dynamo specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fakel
4
Draws
1
Dynamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Dynamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 1, Dynamo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Dynamo last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Fakel 1-1 Dynamo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fakel see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 27%, Dynamo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 4% for Fakel and 64% for Dynamo.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Fakel have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Dynamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Dynamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Fakel's recent matches and 68% of Dynamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Dynamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 4% of Fakel's recent games and 64% of Dynamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Dynamo tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Dynamo in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and Dynamo finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.84 xG and Dynamo 1.41 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.64 / defence 0.78 against Dynamo attack 1.42 / defence 0.94, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 19% | Draw 33% | Dynamo 47%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 29%, Dynamo 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dynamo's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.