Dynamo 3-1 Nizhny Novgorod – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Dynamo welcome Nizhny Novgorod to VTB Arena in Premier League (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Dynamo have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dynamo at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nizhny Novgorod — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nizhny Novgorod away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Dynamo's games and 60% of Nizhny Novgorod's (from Dynamo's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Dynamo have won 3, Nizhny Novgorod 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Apr 2024, ended Dynamo 4–1 Nizhny Novgorod — a Dynamo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dynamo trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Nizhny Novgorod trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo 66% versus Nizhny Novgorod 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 59% | Nizhny Novgorod 43%). Note also that Nizhny Novgorod surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Dynamo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 54% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.52 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.154 / defence 0.981 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.954 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.307. Data: built from Dynamo's last 44 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 44.
Result probabilities: Dynamo 41% | Draw 32% | Nizhny Novgorod 27%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 2.44 | Draw 3.15 | Nizhny Novgorod 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dynamo are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Dynamo's last 10 home games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo 70% (last 10 home games) | Nizhny Novgorod 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 41% | Draw 32% | Nizhny Novgorod 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Dynamo 1.52 / Nizhny Novgorod 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.154 / def 0.981 | Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.954 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Nizhny Novgorod xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod FAQs
What time does Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod kick off?
Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Dynamo 3 - 1 Nizhny Novgorod.
Where is Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod part of?
Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 41% chance of winning, Nizhny Novgorod a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Dynamo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Nizhny Novgorod's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nizhny Novgorod's attack versus Dynamo's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dynamo's last 44 games and Nizhny Novgorod's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
41%
2.44
32%
3.15
27%
3.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.74
1.22
Nizhny Novgorod xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.66
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.29
6%
16.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.22 for Nizhny Novgorod, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dynamo come into this having played 44 games, going 24W 11D 9L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Nizhny Novgorod sit at 1.07 PPG from 44 outings (13W 8D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Dynamo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Nizhny Novgorod — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Dynamo's home form reads 14W 3D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Nizhny Novgorod have taken 0.86 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dynamo are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Nizhny Novgorod are on 1.05 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
Dynamo (Home) vs Nizhny Novgorod (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo
Blended
Nizhny Novgorod
Blended
❓ Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 24W 11D 9L in their last 44 games (1.89 PPG), while Nizhny Novgorod have gone 13W 8D 23L in their last 44 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or Nizhny Novgorod away?
Dynamo's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 2.05 PPG; Nizhny Novgorod away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2024, when Dynamo won Nizhny Novgorod 1-4 Dynamo.
Dynamo's record when hosting Nizhny Novgorod specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dynamo
4
Draws
1
Nizhny Novgorod
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo have won 5, Nizhny Novgorod have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Nizhny Novgorod 1-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod?
Dynamo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Nizhny Novgorod are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 64%, Nizhny Novgorod 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dynamo) and 36% (Nizhny Novgorod).
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nizhny Novgorod in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / Nizhny Novgorod away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo vs Nizhny Novgorod Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Dynamo's recent matches and 46% of Nizhny Novgorod's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Dynamo's recent games and 36% of Nizhny Novgorod's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo and Nizhny Novgorod matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Dynamo's recent matches and 64% of Nizhny Novgorod's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nizhny Novgorod.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo beat Nizhny Novgorod 3-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.52 xG and Nizhny Novgorod 1.22 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Nizhny Novgorod attack 0.95 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 41% | Draw 32% | Nizhny Novgorod 27%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 59%, Nizhny Novgorod 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Nizhny Novgorod's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Nizhny Novgorod (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.