CSKA Moscow 1-2 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as CSKA Moscow face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Rostov make the trip to VEB Arena to face CSKA Moscow in Premier League (matchday 16). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
CSKA Moscow have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
CSKA Moscow's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
FC Rostov's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Rostov's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 1.10 PPG lead over FC Rostov (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours CSKA Moscow, who have won 3 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against FC Rostov — FC Rostov have 0 wins, with 3 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2024, ended CSKA Moscow 0–0 FC Rostov — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both CSKA Moscow and goals — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 58% versus FC Rostov 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 53% | FC Rostov 60%). Note also that FC Rostov surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while CSKA Moscow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and FC Rostov 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 0.981 / defence 0.816 | FC Rostov attack 0.883 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.258. Data: built from CSKA Moscow's last 45 games and FC Rostov's last 45.
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 19%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 2.01 | Draw 3.16 | FC Rostov 5.34. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: CSKA Moscow 20% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG CSKA Moscow 1.56 / FC Rostov 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 0.981 / def 0.816 | FC Rostov attack 0.883 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FC Rostov xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 2 FC Rostov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 50% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against FC Rostov's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — FC Rostov's attack (0.88x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from CSKA Moscow's last 45 games and FC Rostov's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
50%
2.01
32%
3.16
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.47
0.91
FC Rostov xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
25.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.91 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 20W 15D 10L from 45 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 17L across 45 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.33 for FC Rostov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 11W 6D 5L from their last 22 home games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 4W 5D 13L across their last 22 away games, a 0.77 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Rostov's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.40 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov in 60%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
CSKA Moscow (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
CSKA Moscow
Blended
FC Rostov
Blended
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 20W 15D 10L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 16W 12D 17L in their last 45 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or FC Rostov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.77 PPG; FC Rostov away: 0.77 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or FC Rostov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Rostov in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won CSKA Moscow 4-0 FC Rostov on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Rostov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
CSKA Moscow
5
Draws
2
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, CSKA Moscow have won 3, FC Rostov have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: FC Rostov 0-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 50%, FC Rostov 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (CSKA Moscow) and 54% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Rostov in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ CSKA Moscow vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 54% of FC Rostov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 54% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 68% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat CSKA Moscow 1-2 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and FC Rostov 0.91 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.98 / defence 0.82 against FC Rostov attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 50% | Draw 32% | FC Rostov 19%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC Rostov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 53%, FC Rostov 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Rostov's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.67 PPG, FC Rostov 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.