Nacional 2-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Famalicao at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nacional face Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nacional host Famalicao at Estádio da Madeira in Primeira Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Nacional — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Nacional have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Nacional are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Famalicao have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Famalicao away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Nacional) versus 1.30 (Famalicao). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Nacional, 0 for Famalicao and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Nacional 0–0 Famalicao — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nacional trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nacional 35% versus Famalicao 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nacional 35% | Famalicao 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nacional 1.24 xG and Famalicao 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nacional attack 0.923 / defence 1.089 | Famalicao attack 1.162 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.149. Data: built from Nacional's last 23 games and Famalicao's last 57.
Result probabilities: Nacional 31% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 41%. Fair-value odds: Nacional 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Famalicao 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nacional 30% (last 10 home games) | Famalicao 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nacional vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 24 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Saturday 1 March 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nacional 31% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Nacional 1.24 / Famalicao 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Nacional attack 0.923 / def 1.089 | Famalicao attack 1.162 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Nacional xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Famalicao xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nacional vs Famalicao FAQs
What time does Nacional vs Famalicao kick off?
Nacional vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Nacional vs Famalicao?
Nacional 2 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Nacional vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Nacional vs Famalicao part of?
Nacional vs Famalicao is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 24) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Nacional a 31% chance of winning, Famalicao a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nacional and Famalicao will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nacional vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nacional's attack at 0.92x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Nacional's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nacional's last 23 games and Famalicao's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
31%
3.23
28%
3.57
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Nacional xG
Total xG
2.69
1.46
Famalicao xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nacional vs Famalicao Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nacional and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Nacional and 1.46 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nacional come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 5D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.35 PPG from 23 outings (7W 10D 6L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nacional on 1.00 PPG, Famalicao on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nacional's home form reads 5W 2D 4L across their last 11 home games, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Nacional are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.45 points per game from their last 11 away games (4W 4D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Nacional are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.13 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nacional
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
Nacional (Home) vs Famalicao (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nacional
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Nacional vs Famalicao Form FAQs
What form are Nacional and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Nacional have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 7W 10D 6L in their last 23 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nacional at home or Famalicao away?
Nacional's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nacional at home: 1.55 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Nacional or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Famalicao in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Sep 2026, when Famalicao won Nacional 0-4 Famalicao.
Nacional's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Nacional
1
Draws
3
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Nacional vs Famalicao H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Famalicao?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Nacional have won 1, Famalicao have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nacional and Famalicao last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Nacional 0-4 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Nacional and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nacional 36%, Famalicao 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nacional) and 54% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Nacional keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Famalicao in 36%; Nacional have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nacional home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nacional vs Famalicao Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nacional and Famalicao matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Nacional's recent matches and 54% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nacional and Famalicao matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nacional's recent games and 54% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nacional and Famalicao matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Nacional's recent matches and 82% of Famalicao's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nacional defy the odds to beat Famalicao 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nacional beat Famalicao 2-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 24, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.24 xG and Famalicao 1.46 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 0.92 / defence 1.09 against Famalicao attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nacional 31% | Draw 28% | Famalicao 41%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Nacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 35%, Famalicao 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nacional's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Famalicao's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nacional 1.00 PPG, Famalicao 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nacional win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Primeira Liga fixtures — matchday 24
All Primeira Liga fixtures →
More Portuguese football predictions →