Moreirense 1-4 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Moreirense at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Moreirense vs Casa Pia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Moreirense host Casa Pia at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 8 January 2024 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Moreirense — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 3W 2D 2L at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.57 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas this season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Casa Pia have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Moreirense have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Moreirense in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Casa Pia in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 40% versus Casa Pia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Moreirense 40% | Casa Pia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.65 xG and Casa Pia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.026 / defence 0.997 | Casa Pia attack 1.013 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.209. Data: 15 Moreirense games / 49 Casa Pia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Moreirense 47% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 28%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Casa Pia 3.57. Moreirense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Moreirense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 57% | Casa Pia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Moreirense vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas • Kick-off: Monday 8 Jan 2024, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Moreirense 47% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Moreirense 1.65 / Casa Pia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Moreirense attack 1.026 / def 0.997 | Casa Pia attack 1.013 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Moreirense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Moreirense xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Casa Pia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Moreirense vs Casa Pia kick off?
Moreirense vs Casa Pia kicked off at 20:15 on Monday 8 January 2024 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What was the final score in Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
Moreirense 1 - 4 Casa Pia.
Where is Moreirense vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas.
What competition is Moreirense vs Casa Pia part of?
Moreirense vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Moreirense a 47% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Moreirense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Moreirense and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Moreirense vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Moreirense and Casa Pia in?
Moreirense (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Casa Pia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Moreirense's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Casa Pia's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Moreirense's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Moreirense Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.08
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Moreirense xG
Total xG
2.87
1.22
Casa Pia xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
5%
18.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Moreirense and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Moreirense and 1.22 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Moreirense vs Casa Pia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Moreirense's recent record stands at 7W 5D 3L from 15 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Casa Pia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 7L across 15 games — 1.07 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Moreirense by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Casa Pia heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Moreirense have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Casa Pia's away record stands at 2W 2D 3L across 7 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Moreirense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Moreirense are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Casa Pia are on 0.93 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Moreirense
Blended
Casa Pia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Moreirense and Casa Pia in coming into this match?
Moreirense have gone 7W 5D 3L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Casa Pia have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Moreirense at home or Casa Pia away?
Moreirense's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Moreirense at home: 1.57 PPG; Casa Pia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Moreirense or Casa Pia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Moreirense have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Casa Pia in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Moreirense and Casa Pia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jan 2024, when Casa Pia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Moreirense's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Moreirense
1
Draws
2
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Moreirense and Casa Pia?
From 6 meetings on record, Moreirense have won 3, Casa Pia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Moreirense and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Casa Pia 1-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Moreirense and Casa Pia?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Moreirense 57%, Casa Pia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Moreirense) and 43% (Casa Pia).
On the defensive side: Moreirense keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Casa Pia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Moreirense home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Moreirense play Casa Pia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Moreirense's games and 57% of Casa Pia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Moreirense vs Casa Pia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Moreirense's recent games and 43% of Casa Pia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Moreirense and Casa Pia tend to score early?
Moreirense have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Casa Pia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Casa Pia run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Moreirense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia beat Moreirense 1-4 at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.65 xG and Casa Pia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Casa Pia outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.03 / defence 1.00 against Casa Pia attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Moreirense 47% | Draw 24% | Casa Pia 28%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Casa Pia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 40%, Casa Pia 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Moreirense's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Casa Pia's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Casa Pia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Moreirense (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Casa Pia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.