Estrela 1-1 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vizela at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estrela vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estrela and Vizela meet at Estádio José Gomes in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 January 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Estrela's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Estrela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio José Gomes, Estrela have gone 4W 0D 5L this season (9 games, 1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vizela have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vizela, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vizela away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Estrela, 0.80 for Vizela — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Estrela — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Vizela — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estrela 59% versus Vizela 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estrela 47% | Vizela 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estrela 1.18 xG and Vizela 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estrela attack 0.863 / defence 1.314 | Vizela attack 0.869 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.211. Data: 15 Estrela games / 49 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Vizela 42%. Fair-value odds: Estrela 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Vizela 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vizela are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vizela if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Estrela 56% | Vizela 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estrela vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio José Gomes • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Vizela 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Estrela 1.18 / Vizela 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Estrela attack 0.863 / def 1.314 | Vizela attack 0.869 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Vizela (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Estrela xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Vizela xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estrela vs Vizela kick off?
Estrela vs Vizela kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Estádio José Gomes.
What was the final score in Estrela vs Vizela?
Estrela 1 - 1 Vizela.
Where is Estrela vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Gomes.
What competition is Estrela vs Vizela part of?
Estrela vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estrela vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Estrela a 32% chance of winning, Vizela a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vizela the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estrela vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estrela and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Estrela vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estrela and Vizela in?
Estrela (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Vizela (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Estrela's attack rating (0.86) and Vizela's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.87x) against Estrela's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 15/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vizela Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.78
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Estrela xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Vizela xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estrela vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Estrela and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Estrela and 1.38 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Estrela vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Estrela's recent record stands at 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Estrela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 9L across 17 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Vizela is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Estrela by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Estrela have managed 3W 0D 5L from 8 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vizela's away record stands at 1W 3D 4L across 8 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Estrela are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.88 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estrela
Blended
Vizela
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estrela and Vizela in coming into this match?
Estrela have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Vizela have gone 2W 6D 9L in their last 17 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estrela at home or Vizela away?
Estrela's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estrela at home: 1.12 PPG; Vizela away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estrela
1
Draws
1
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estrela and Vizela?
From 2 meetings on record, Estrela have won 0, Vizela have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estrela and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2024, when Vizela 4-0 Estrela.
Who has won more matches between Estrela and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Estrela see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Vizela tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estrela 50%, Vizela 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Estrela) and 38% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: Estrela have failed to score in 38% of games; Vizela in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estrela home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estrela play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Estrela's recent matches and 50% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estrela vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Estrela's recent games and 38% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estrela and Vizela tend to score early?
Estrela have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vizela in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estrela and Vizela share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio José Gomes, Regular Season - 16, as Estrela and Vizela drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estrela 1.18 xG and Vizela 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estrela attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Vizela attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estrela 32% | Draw 26% | Vizela 42%, with Vizela to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estrela 47%, Vizela 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estrela's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Vizela's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Estrela arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.