Estoril 1-3 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estoril at 57%, yet in-form Moreirense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Estoril vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estoril host Moreirense at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 13 January 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Estoril — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Estoril's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Moreirense have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Moreirense have posted 4W 3D 1L from their last 8 away outings — 1.88 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 8 away games (62%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Moreirense's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Estoril's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Estoril's 30% BTTS rate and Moreirense's 25% (from Estoril's last 10 home games and Moreirense's last 8 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Estoril, 1 for Moreirense and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 May 2022, ended Estoril 1–0 Moreirense — a Estoril win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Estoril in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Moreirense in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 56% versus Moreirense 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 69% | Moreirense 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.56 xG and Moreirense 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.412 / defence 0.748 | Moreirense attack 0.793 / defence 0.752. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.246. Estoril carry an above-average attack rating of 1.412 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Moreirense bring a tight defence (rating 0.752, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Estoril's projected output down. Moreirense's attack rating of 0.793 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Estoril have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Moreirense's projected output down. Data: built from Estoril's last 50 games and Moreirense's last 16.
Result probabilities: Estoril 57% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 18%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.76 | Draw 3.93 | Moreirense 5.66. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (57%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estoril are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Moreirense (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 30% (last 10 home games) | Moreirense 25% (last 8 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 17 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 57% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Estoril 1.56 / Moreirense 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.412 / def 0.748 | Moreirense attack 0.793 / def 0.752 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Estoril (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Moreirense xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs Moreirense FAQs
What time does Estoril vs Moreirense kick off?
Estoril vs Moreirense kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Estoril 1 - 3 Moreirense.
Where is Estoril vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Moreirense part of?
Estoril vs Moreirense is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 17) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 57% chance of winning, Moreirense a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Estoril the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Estoril and Moreirense will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Estoril vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estoril's attack at 1.41x the league average against Moreirense's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 50 games and Moreirense's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estoril Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.93
18%
5.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.30
0.74
Moreirense xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.66
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
27%
3.68
4%
26.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs Moreirense Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Estoril and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Estoril and 0.74 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Moreirense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 2D 9L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Moreirense sit at 1.62 PPG from 16 outings (7W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Moreirense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estoril's home form reads 4W 1D 2L across their last 7 home games, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Estoril are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Moreirense have taken 2.00 points per game from their last 7 away games (4W 2D 1L).
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 1.31 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Moreirense in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
Estoril (Home) vs Moreirense (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Estoril vs Moreirense Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Moreirense away?
Moreirense's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.86 PPG; Moreirense away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Estoril or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Moreirense in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Moreirense have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Estoril's record when hosting Moreirense specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Estoril
3
Draws
5
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs Moreirense H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Moreirense?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 1, Moreirense have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Moreirense last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Estoril 1-3 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Moreirense?
Moreirense have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Moreirense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Estoril 29% BTTS, Moreirense 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Estoril) and 43% (Moreirense). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Estoril keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Moreirense in 57%; Moreirense in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs Moreirense Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and Moreirense matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Estoril's recent matches and 29% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and Moreirense matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Estoril's matches and 43% of Moreirense's.
Moreirense cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Moreirense beat Estoril 1-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.56 xG and Moreirense 0.74 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Moreirense outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.41 / defence 0.75 against Moreirense attack 0.79 / defence 0.75, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 57% | Draw 25% | Moreirense 18%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Moreirense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 69%, Moreirense 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Moreirense's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.06. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Moreirense (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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