Benfica 4-1 Rio Ave – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Rio Ave encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Benfica host Rio Ave at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Benfica have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rio Ave stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rio Ave, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rio Ave's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benfica, 0 for Rio Ave and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Benfica in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Rio Ave in-play tendencies (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 36% versus Rio Ave 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 58% | Rio Ave 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.73 xG and Rio Ave 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.216 / defence 0.709 | Rio Ave attack 0.847 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.273. Benfica's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Benfica games / 50 Rio Ave games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 16%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Rio Ave 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 30% | Rio Ave 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Rio Ave | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 60% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 44% | xG Benfica 1.73 / Rio Ave 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.216 / def 0.709 | Rio Ave attack 0.847 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Benfica (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Rio Ave xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Rio Ave kick off?
Benfica vs Rio Ave kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 14 January 2024 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Benfica 4 - 1 Rio Ave.
Where is Benfica vs Rio Ave being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Rio Ave part of?
Benfica vs Rio Ave is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 60% chance of winning, Rio Ave a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Benfica and Rio Ave will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Rio Ave have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Rio Ave?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | Rio Ave 0W.
What form are Benfica and Rio Ave in?
Benfica (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Rio Ave (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Benfica's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Rio Ave's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Rio Ave's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.23
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.50
0.76
Rio Ave xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
28%
3.56
3%
35.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Rio Ave expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Benfica and 0.76 for Rio Ave, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Rio Ave?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.52 PPG on a 40W 6D 4L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rio Ave's form line: 13W 16D 21L from 50 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Rio Ave is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rio Ave.
Venue Form
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.62 PPG from 24 outings (20W 3D 1L).
On the road, Rio Ave have gone 2W 10D 12L from 24 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rio Ave's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Rio Ave are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Blended
Rio Ave
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Rio Ave in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 40W 6D 4L in their last 50 games (2.52 PPG), while Rio Ave have gone 13W 16D 21L in their last 50 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Rio Ave away?
Benfica's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.62 PPG; Rio Ave away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Benfica or Rio Ave been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Rio Ave in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Rio Ave specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Benfica
2
Draws
0
Rio Ave
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Rio Ave?
From 8 meetings on record, Benfica have won 6, Rio Ave have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Rio Ave last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Rio Ave 0-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Rio Ave?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Rio Ave are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 46%, Rio Ave 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Benfica) and 46% (Rio Ave). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Rio Ave in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Rio Ave away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Rio Ave?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Benfica's recent matches and 54% of Rio Ave's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Rio Ave usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Benfica's matches and 46% of Rio Ave's.
Do Benfica and Rio Ave tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Rio Ave in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Rio Ave.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Rio Ave 4-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.73 xG and Rio Ave 0.76 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.22 / defence 0.71 against Rio Ave attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 60% | Draw 24% | Rio Ave 16%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, Rio Ave 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Rio Ave's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.58 average — above their attacking norm. Rio Ave (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.