Widzew Łódź 0-1 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Widzew Łódź at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Widzew Łódź face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań meet at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time.
Current Form
Widzew Łódź's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Warta Poznań (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Warta Poznań have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 0–2 Warta Poznań — a Warta Poznań win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Widzew Łódź 50% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Widzew Łódź 46% | Warta Poznań 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.906 / defence 0.949 | Warta Poznań attack 0.944 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.204. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 46 games and Warta Poznań's last 47.
Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 2.92 | Draw 2.97 | Warta Poznań 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 40% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Widzew Łódź 1.12 / Warta Poznań 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Widzew Łódź attack 0.906 / def 0.949 | Warta Poznań attack 0.944 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What was the final score in Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Widzew Łódź 0 - 1 Warta Poznań.
Where is Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź.
What competition is Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań part of?
Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 14) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Widzew Łódź a 34% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Widzew Łódź's attack rating (0.91) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.94x) against Widzew Łódź's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Widzew Łódź's last 46 games and Warta Poznań's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Widzew Łódź Win
34%
2.92
34%
2.97
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Widzew Łódź xG
Total xG
2.20
1.08
Warta Poznań xG
2.92
34%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
10%
9.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.08 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Widzew Łódź's recent record stands at 15W 11D 20L from 46 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 15W 14D 17L across 46 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Widzew Łódź against 1.28 for Warta Poznań. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Widzew Łódź have managed 9W 3D 10L from their last 22 home games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 9W 4D 9L across their last 22 away games, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.09 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
Widzew Łódź (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Widzew Łódź
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Widzew Łódź have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Widzew Łódź at home or Warta Poznań away?
Warta Poznań's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Widzew Łódź at home: 1.36 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Widzew Łódź or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Widzew Łódź have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Warta Poznań have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Widzew Łódź
0
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Widzew Łódź have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 May 2024: Warta Poznań 2-1 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Widzew Łódź 46%, Warta Poznań 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Widzew Łódź) and 27% (Warta Poznań).
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 41%; Warta Poznań in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Widzew Łódź home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Widzew Łódź vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 32% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Widzew Łódź's recent games and 27% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Widzew Łódź and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Widzew Łódź's recent matches and 68% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Warta Poznań defy the odds to beat Widzew Łódź 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Warta Poznań beat Widzew Łódź 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Widzew Łódź 1.12 xG and Warta Poznań 1.08 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Widzew Łódź fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Widzew Łódź attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against Warta Poznań attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Widzew Łódź 34% | Draw 34% | Warta Poznań 32%, with Widzew Łódź to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Warta Poznań win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Widzew Łódź 46%, Warta Poznań 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Widzew Łódź 1.22 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Warta Poznań win broke the near-deadlock. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.