Puszcza Niepołomice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 14). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Puszcza Niepołomice have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 2W 3D 1L from their last 6 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Puszcza Niepołomice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Pogon Szczecin arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Puszcza Niepołomice — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Puszcza Niepołomice 77% versus Pogon Szczecin 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Puszcza Niepołomice 54% | Pogon Szczecin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.852 / defence 1.242 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / defence 0.703. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.200. Pogon Szczecin bring a tight defence (rating 0.703, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Puszcza Niepołomice's projected output down. Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pogon Szczecin's projected output up. Data: built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 13 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 47.
Result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 52%. Fair-value odds: Puszcza Niepołomice 5.24 | Draw 3.46 | Pogon Szczecin 1.92. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Puszcza Niepołomice 83% (last 6 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 14 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 / Pogon Szczecin 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.852 / def 1.242 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.086 / def 0.703 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Pogon Szczecin xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Puszcza Niepołomice 0 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 14) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Puszcza Niepołomice a 19% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 52% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Puszcza Niepołomice's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.91. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.09x) against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from Puszcza Niepołomice's last 13 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
19%
5.24
29%
3.46
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
Total xG
2.53
1.62
Pogon Szczecin xG
5.24
19%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
4%
26.44
21%
4.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.9 | 10.5 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1.62 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Puszcza Niepołomice have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 2W 4D 7L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 7W 1D 5L from 13 games, 1.69 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.92 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 6 home games (2W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.77 PPG overall — Puszcza Niepołomice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 2L from their last 6 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Puszcza Niepołomice are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.85 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Puszcza Niepołomice
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Pogon Szczecin
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❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 2W 4D 7L in their last 13 games (0.77 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 5L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Puszcza Niepołomice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Puszcza Niepołomice at home: 1.50 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Puszcza Niepołomice or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Puszcza Niepołomice have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Pogon Szczecin have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
0
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Puszcza Niepołomice 4-5 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 75% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Puszcza Niepołomice 83%, Pogon Szczecin 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Puszcza Niepołomice) and 33% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 50%; Pogon Szczecin in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Puszcza Niepołomice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Puszcza Niepołomice vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 17% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent games and 33% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Puszcza Niepołomice and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent matches and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Puszcza Niepołomice 0-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.62 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.85 / defence 1.24 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.09 / defence 0.70, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Puszcza Niepołomice 19% | Draw 29% | Pogon Szczecin 52%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Puszcza Niepołomice 54%, Pogon Szczecin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.