Stal Mielec 1-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stal Mielec face Warta Poznań.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stal Mielec welcome Warta Poznań to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa (matchday 34). Kick-off is Saturday 27 May 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Warta Poznań — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Warta Poznań's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stal Mielec at 1.10 PPG versus Warta Poznań's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Stal Mielec have won 0, Warta Poznań 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2022, ended Stal Mielec 1–1 Warta Poznań — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Stal Mielec in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Warta Poznań in-play and half-time data (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 49% versus Warta Poznań 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stal Mielec 40% | Warta Poznań 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.01 xG and Warta Poznań 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 0.721 / defence 0.882 | Warta Poznań attack 0.794 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Stal Mielec's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Warta Poznań's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Stal Mielec's last 67 games and Warta Poznań's last 67.
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 40% | Draw 35% | Warta Poznań 25%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.49 | Draw 2.89 | Warta Poznań 3.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Warta Poznań's lower xG of 0.74 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stal Mielec as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stal Mielec's last 10 home games and Warta Poznań's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stal Mielec 40% (last 10 home games) | Warta Poznań 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 40% | Draw 35% | Warta Poznań 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Stal Mielec 1.01 / Warta Poznań 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 0.721 / def 0.882 | Warta Poznań attack 0.794 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Warta Poznań xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań FAQs
What time does Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Stal Mielec 1 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań part of?
Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 34) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 40% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (0.72) and Warta Poznań's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Warta Poznań's attack versus Stal Mielec's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stal Mielec's last 67 games and Warta Poznań's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
40%
2.49
35%
2.89
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
1.75
0.74
Warta Poznań xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 0.74 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 67 outings, Stal Mielec have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 19W 20D 28L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Warta Poznań's form line: 23W 18D 26L from 67 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stal Mielec on 1.15 PPG, Warta Poznań on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stal Mielec have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 33 home games (12W 11D 10L).
On the road, Warta Poznań have gone 14W 5D 14L from their last 33 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 1.07 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
Stal Mielec (Home) vs Warta Poznań (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stal Mielec
Current Season
Warta Poznań
Current Season
❓ Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań Form FAQs
What form are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 19W 20D 28L in their last 67 games (1.15 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 23W 18D 26L in their last 67 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Warta Poznań away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.42 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Warta Poznań been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Warta Poznań in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 22 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Warta Poznań have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Apr 2024, when Warta Poznań won Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Stal Mielec's record when hosting Warta Poznań specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stal Mielec have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2024: Warta Poznań 5-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Stal Mielec 46% BTTS, Warta Poznań 21%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Stal Mielec and 27% for Warta Poznań.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Warta Poznań in 42%; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 36% of games; Warta Poznań in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stal Mielec vs Warta Poznań Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 21% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 27% of Warta Poznań's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Warta Poznań matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 64% of Warta Poznań's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stal Mielec edge out Warta Poznań 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Warta Poznań 1-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.01 xG and Warta Poznań 0.74 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 0.72 / defence 0.88 against Warta Poznań attack 0.79 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 40% | Draw 35% | Warta Poznań 25%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 40%, Warta Poznań 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.15 PPG, Warta Poznań 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.