Pogon Szczecin 4-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pogon Szczecin (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pogon Szczecin face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 May 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pogon Szczecin have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Radomiak Radom's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Pogon Szczecin. A 0.90 PPG lead over Radomiak Radom (2.10 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Radomiak Radom in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pogon Szczecin lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 2–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 64% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 55% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.55 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.267 / defence 1.292 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.014 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.057. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Pogon Szczecin games / 67 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 33%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 70% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.55 / Radomiak Radom 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.267 / def 1.292 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.014 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Radomiak Radom xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Pogon Szczecin 4 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 41% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 2W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.01x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.85
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.93
1.38
Radomiak Radom xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.38 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 34W 20D 13L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Radomiak Radom's form line: 23W 23D 21L from 67 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Radomiak Radom.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 2.03 PPG from 33 outings (20W 7D 6L).
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 11W 12D 10L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Current Season
Radomiak Radom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 34W 20D 13L in their last 67 games (1.82 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 23W 23D 21L in their last 67 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 2.03 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-0 on 4 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
2
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Pogon Szczecin 2-2 Radomiak Radom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 73%, Radomiak Radom 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Pogon Szczecin) and 42% (Radomiak Radom). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 30%; Radomiak Radom in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 42% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Radomiak Radom 4-0 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.55 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.38 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Radomiak Radom landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.27 / defence 1.29 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.01 / defence 0.91, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 41% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 33%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 55%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.