Warta Poznań 0-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Warta Poznań at 44%, yet in-form Pogon Szczecin provide a compelling counter-argument — this Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim to face Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 21 July 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Warta Poznań (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Warta Poznań haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Warta Poznań at Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Warta Poznań are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim than their overall form suggests.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pogon Szczecin haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pogon Szczecin are 1.00 PPG clear of Warta Poznań in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Warta Poznań 0W, Pogon Szczecin 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Warta Poznań goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Warta Poznań 38% versus Pogon Szczecin 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Warta Poznań 29% | Pogon Szczecin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Warta Poznań 1.36 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Warta Poznań attack 1.020 / defence 0.959 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.032 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.025. Data: 34 Warta Poznań games / 34 Pogon Szczecin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Warta Poznań 44% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 27%. Fair-value odds: Warta Poznań 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Warta Poznań as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pogon Szczecin (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Warta Poznań if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Warta Poznań 70% | Pogon Szczecin 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jul 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Warta Poznań 44% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Warta Poznań 1.36 / Pogon Szczecin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Warta Poznań attack 1.020 / def 0.959 | Pogon Szczecin attack 1.032 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Warta Poznań (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Warta Poznań xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 21 July 2023 at Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim.
What was the final score in Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Warta Poznań 0 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim.
What competition is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Warta Poznań a 44% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Warta Poznań the favourite.
Will both teams score in Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (4 meetings): Warta Poznań 0W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 2W.
What form are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Warta Poznań (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Warta Poznań's attack rating (1.02) and Pogon Szczecin's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (1.03x) against Warta Poznań's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Warta Poznań Win
44%
2.26
28%
3.53
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Warta Poznań xG
Total xG
2.38
1.01
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Warta Poznań and 1.01 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Warta Poznań come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 9D 13L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. Warta Poznań haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.76 PPG from 34 outings (17W 9D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. Pogon Szczecin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Warta Poznań's home form reads 5W 7D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.53 points per game from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Warta Poznań are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.68 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 65%.
Defensively: Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Warta Poznań
Pre-Season
Pogon Szczecin
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Warta Poznań have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 games (1.32 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 17W 9D 8L in their last 34 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Warta Poznań at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Warta Poznań at home: 1.29 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Warta Poznań or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Warta Poznań have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Warta Poznań have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Warta Poznań
3
Draws
3
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
From 6 meetings on record, Warta Poznań have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2023, when Pogon Szczecin 3-3 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Warta Poznań and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Warta Poznań see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Warta Poznań 53%, Pogon Szczecin 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Warta Poznań) and 53% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Warta Poznań home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Warta Poznań play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Warta Poznań's games and 65% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Warta Poznań vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Warta Poznań's recent games and 53% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Pogon Szczecin defy the odds to beat Warta Poznań 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Warta Poznań 0-1 at Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Warta Poznań 1.36 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Warta Poznań fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Warta Poznań attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Pogon Szczecin attack 1.03 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Warta Poznań 44% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 27%, with Warta Poznań to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Warta Poznań 29%, Pogon Szczecin 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Warta Poznań's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.32. That form edge translated into the three points. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.