Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Widzew Łódź vs Jagiellonia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski Widzewa Łódź to face Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Sunday 11 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Widzew Łódź have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Widzew Łódź's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Jagiellonia's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Jagiellonia's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Jagiellonia are 0.80 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź over their recent games (1.90 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2023, ended Widzew Łódź 1–2 Jagiellonia — a Jagiellonia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Widzew Łódź half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Jagiellonia half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 69%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Widzew Łódź 51% and Jagiellonia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Widzew Łódź 47% | Jagiellonia 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Widzew Łódź surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Jagiellonia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 69% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Widzew Łódź 1.44 xG and Jagiellonia 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Widzew Łódź attack 0.810 / defence 1.118 | Jagiellonia attack 1.288 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.197. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack rating of 1.288, which lifts their away xG to 1.72. Data: built from Widzew Łódź's last 53 games and Jagiellonia's last 53.

Result probabilities: Widzew Łódź 31% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 44%. Fair-value odds: Widzew Łódź 3.20 | Draw 3.96 | Jagiellonia 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.44 / 1.72) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Widzew Łódź's last 10 home games and Jagiellonia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Widzew Łódź 30% (last 10 home games) | Jagiellonia 80% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights