Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Radomiak Radom at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to take on Lechia Gdansk. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 1W 2D 4L from 7 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.71 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 2.14 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.14 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lechia Gdansk have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 2L across 3 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Radomiak Radom have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Radomiak Radom have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.71 PPG (Lechia Gdansk) versus 0.90 (Radomiak Radom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lechia Gdansk register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Radomiak Radom in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Radomiak Radom have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Lechia Gdansk.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Radomiak Radom winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Radomiak Radom have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 86% and Radomiak Radom 100% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lechia Gdansk 57% | Radomiak Radom 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.38 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.733 / defence 1.301 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.131 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.093. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Lechia Gdansk games / 40 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 32% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 42%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Radomiak Radom 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.61) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Radomiak Radom are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 67% | Radomiak Radom 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 32% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.38 / Radomiak Radom 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.733 / def 1.301 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.131 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Radomiak Radom xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 13:45 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 32% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 3W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 2.14 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.73) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
32%
3.14
26%
3.83
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.99
1.61
Radomiak Radom xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
6%
15.67
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.61 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 2W 0D 5L across 7 games — 0.86 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 0.71 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Radomiak Radom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.57 scored and 2.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games; Radomiak Radom in 100%.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Early Season
Radomiak Radom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.33 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Radomiak Radom have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2022, when Radomiak Radom won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
6
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Radomiak Radom 3-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lechia Gdansk at 67%, Radomiak Radom at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Lechia Gdansk and 100% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 100% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 100% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Radomiak Radom 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.38 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.61 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.73 / defence 1.30 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.13 / defence 1.30, drawn from 7/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 32% | Draw 26% | Radomiak Radom 42%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 57%, Radomiak Radom 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 93%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 0.71 PPG, Radomiak Radom 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.