Piast Gliwice 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 8 as Piast Gliwice welcome Puszcza Niepołomice to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Miejski, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski.
Puszcza Niepołomice — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Puszcza Niepołomice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Puszcza Niepołomice have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.40 (Puszcza Niepołomice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Puszcza Niepołomice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 34% | Puszcza Niepołomice 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.31 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.045 / defence 0.884 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.703 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.054. Data: 41 Piast Gliwice games / 41 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.56. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 40% | Puszcza Niepołomice 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.31 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.045 / def 0.884 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.703 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
36%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 52% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (2 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 0 | Puszcza Niepołomice 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Piast Gliwice's attack at 1.04x the league average against Puszcza Niepołomice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.34
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
1.97
0.66
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
5%
20.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.0 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.66 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 13W 18D 10L from 41 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Puszcza Niepołomice, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 14L across 41 games — 1.15 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.39 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 8D 3L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Puszcza Niepołomice's away record stands at 2W 6D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.15 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Puszcza Niepołomice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 13W 18D 10L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 10W 17D 14L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.75 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
2
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Puszcza Niepołomice 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Puszcza Niepołomice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 45%, Puszcza Niepołomice 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Piast Gliwice) and 30% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Puszcza Niepołomice in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 45% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 30% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Puszcza Niepołomice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.31 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.66 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.04 / defence 0.88 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.70 / defence 0.85, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 52% | Draw 30% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 34%, Puszcza Niepołomice 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.39 PPG, Puszcza Niepołomice 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.