Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pogon Szczecin make the trip to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.70 for Pogon Szczecin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Pogon Szczecin, who have claimed 3 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 51% versus Pogon Szczecin 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 42% | Pogon Szczecin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.71 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.171 / defence 1.244 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.928 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.071. Data: 41 Cracovia Krakow games / 41 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 27%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Pogon Szczecin 3.70. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.71 / Pogon Szczecin 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.171 / def 1.244 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.928 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 48% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (5 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 2 | Pogon Szczecin 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.93x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
48%
2.08
25%
4.05
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.94
1.24
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
5%
20.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.24 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 12W 16D 13L from 41 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 13L across 41 games — 1.66 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Cracovia Krakow against 1.66 for Pogon Szczecin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 6W 8D 6L from 20 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 7W 6D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.76 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 16D 13L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 20W 8D 13L in their last 41 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.30 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 3 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 1-5 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
6
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 60%, Pogon Szczecin 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Cracovia Krakow) and 40% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 35%; Pogon Szczecin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 35% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 40% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Pogon Szczecin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Pogon Szczecin 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.71 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.24 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.17 / defence 1.24 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 48% | Draw 25% | Pogon Szczecin 27%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 42%, Pogon Szczecin 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.27 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.