Pogon Szczecin 3-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pogon Szczecin face Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cracovia Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Pogon Szczecin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.20 for Cracovia Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Pogon Szczecin 5–1 Cracovia Krakow — a Pogon Szczecin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Cracovia Krakow — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pogon Szczecin 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 58% | Cracovia Krakow 34%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Pogon Szczecin recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.177 / defence 1.348 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.786 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.142. Cracovia Krakow's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cracovia Krakow's projected output up. Data: built from Pogon Szczecin's last 59 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 59.
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 31%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.62 | Draw 3.20 | Cracovia Krakow 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pogon Szczecin 70% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Pogon Szczecin 1.37 / Cracovia Krakow 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.177 / def 1.348 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.786 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin 3 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 26) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 38% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.79x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Pogon Szczecin's last 59 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.20
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.21
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.21 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pogon Szczecin's recent record stands at 29W 14D 16L from 59 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 17W 23D 19L across 59 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pogon Szczecin have managed 15W 6D 8L from their last 29 home games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 6W 12D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.24 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Pogon Szczecin (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 29W 14D 16L in their last 59 games (1.71 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 23D 19L in their last 59 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.76 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Pogon Szczecin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pogon Szczecin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 3 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won Cracovia Krakow 1-5 Pogon Szczecin on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pogon Szczecin have won 6, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 August 2026: Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pogon Szczecin 66%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Pogon Szczecin) and 28% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pogon Szczecin vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Pogon Szczecin's recent games and 28% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Pogon Szczecin's recent matches and 72% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Cracovia Krakow 3-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.21 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.18 / defence 1.35 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 38% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 31%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 58%, Cracovia Krakow 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.