Korona Kielce 3-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 38%, yet in-form Legia Warszawa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Legia Warszawa travel to Suzuki Arena to take on Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Korona Kielce have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Korona Kielce have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Legia Warszawa have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Legia Warszawa's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Korona Kielce's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Korona Kielce, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Aug 2023, ended Korona Kielce 0–1 Legia Warszawa — a Legia Warszawa win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Korona Kielce in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 59% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 44% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.32 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.018 / defence 1.021 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.219. Data: built from Korona Kielce's last 54 games and Legia Warszawa's last 55.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 29%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.62 | Draw 3.08 | Legia Warszawa 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Korona Kielce as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Legia Warszawa (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Korona Kielce 60% (last 10 home games) | Legia Warszawa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 22 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Korona Kielce 1.32 / Legia Warszawa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.018 / def 1.021 | Legia Warszawa attack 0.915 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa FAQs
What time does Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Korona Kielce 3 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 22) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 38% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.02) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Korona Kielce's last 54 games and Legia Warszawa's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
38%
2.62
32%
3.08
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.46
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
8%
12.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.14 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Korona Kielce come into this having played 54 games, going 15W 17D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.87 PPG from 54 outings (29W 14D 11L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Korona Kielce's home form reads 11W 7D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 26 away games (11W 6D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.61 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Korona Kielce (Home) vs Legia Warszawa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Korona Kielce
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Form FAQs
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 15W 17D 22L in their last 54 games (1.15 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 29W 14D 11L in their last 54 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.54 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Korona Kielce have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 58%, Legia Warszawa 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Korona Kielce) and 42% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 35%; Legia Warszawa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 38% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 42% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 65% of Legia Warszawa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa finished level at 3-3 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.32 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Legia Warszawa attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 38% | Draw 32% | Legia Warszawa 29%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.