Legia Warszawa 1-1 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Puszcza Niepołomice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 7L across 9 road games this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Legia Warszawa) versus 1.20 (Puszcza Niepołomice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 0 for Puszcza Niepołomice and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 47% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 47% | Puszcza Niepołomice 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.093 / defence 0.940 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.926 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.244. Puszcza Niepołomice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Legia Warszawa games / 19 Puszcza Niepołomice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Puszcza Niepołomice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.09 / Puszcza Niepołomice 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.093 / def 0.940 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.926 / def 1.327 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 1 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 60% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 1 | Puszcza Niepołomice 0W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Puszcza Niepołomice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.09) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.50
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.17
1.08
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
2%
44.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.08 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 9W 5D 5L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 5W 5D 9L from 19 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L. The sample for Puszcza Niepołomice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.32 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Puszcza Niepołomice in 68%.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.89 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Puszcza Niepołomice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Puszcza Niepołomice in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
From 4 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Legia Warszawa 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 56%, Puszcza Niepołomice 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Legia Warszawa and 56% for Puszcza Niepołomice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Puszcza Niepołomice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Legia Warszawa's games and 67% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 56% of Puszcza Niepołomice's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Puszcza Niepołomice in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, as Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.09 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 1.08 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Legia Warszawa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.93 / defence 1.33, drawn from 54/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 60% | Draw 22% | Puszcza Niepołomice 18%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 47%, Puszcza Niepołomice 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Puszcza Niepołomice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.