Stal Mielec 0-0 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stal Mielec's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Raków Częstochowa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stal Mielec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Raków Częstochowa in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Raków Częstochowa, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Raków Częstochowa — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 43% versus Raków Częstochowa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 41% | Raków Częstochowa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.90 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.087 / defence 0.996 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.105 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.236. Raków Częstochowa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Stal Mielec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Stal Mielec games / 54 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 26%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Raków Częstochowa 3.85. Stal Mielec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.26 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 60% | Raków Częstochowa 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Stal Mielec 1.90 / Raków Częstochowa 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.087 / def 0.996 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.105 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Raków Częstochowa xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Stal Mielec 0 - 0 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 48% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (5 meetings): Stal Mielec 0W | Draws 1 | Raków Częstochowa 4W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stal Mielec's attack at 1.09x the league average against Raków Częstochowa's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.10x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.85
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
3.26
1.36
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
4%
26.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.36 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stal Mielec come into this having played 54 games, going 19W 14D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Raków Częstochowa sit at 2.04 PPG from 54 outings (33W 11D 10L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stal Mielec's home form reads 11W 9D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Raków Częstochowa have taken 1.50 points per game from 26 outings (11W 6D 9L). That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Raków Częstochowa's season.
Attack vs Defence
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.89 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 19W 14D 21L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.62 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Stal Mielec or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stal Mielec have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Raków Częstochowa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
6
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
From 8 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 0, Raków Częstochowa have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-2 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stal Mielec see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 46%, Raków Częstochowa 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stal Mielec) and 58% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stal Mielec have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Stal Mielec's recent matches and 62% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stal Mielec vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stal Mielec's recent games and 58% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stal Mielec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Raków Częstochowa finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.90 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.36 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stal Mielec fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.09 / defence 1.00 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.10 / defence 1.24, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 48% | Draw 26% | Raków Częstochowa 26%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 41%, Raków Częstochowa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.