Stromsgodset 1-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 37%, yet in-form Bodo/Glimt provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 23 sees Bodo/Glimt travel to Marienlyst Stadion to take on Stromsgodset. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 October 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's home record at Marienlyst Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bodo/Glimt are 1.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stromsgodset have won 0, Bodo/Glimt 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 9.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2021, ended 2–7 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 9.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bodo/Glimt in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 64% | Bodo/Glimt 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.107 / defence 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.278 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.254. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Stromsgodset games / 52 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 33%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Bodo/Glimt 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stromsgodset are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 1.47 / Bodo/Glimt 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.107 / def 0.847 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.278 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Stromsgodset 1 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 37% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Bodo/Glimt 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.34
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.83
1.36
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.37
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.36 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stromsgodset come into this having played 52 games, going 15W 15D 22L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.46 PPG from 52 outings (40W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Stromsgodset's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.24 points per game from 25 outings (17W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.87 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 8D 4L in their last 52 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.40 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Stromsgodset or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stromsgodset have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2021, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-5 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Stromsgodset at 64%, Bodo/Glimt at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Stromsgodset and 76% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Stromsgodset's matches and 76% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 1-1 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.47 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.36 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.11 / defence 0.85 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.28 / defence 0.74, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 37% | Draw 30% | Bodo/Glimt 33%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.