Stabaek 0-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Molde (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Stabaek face Molde.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stabaek and Molde meet at Nadderud Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Molde are 0.60 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Molde have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Stabaek's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 56% versus Molde 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Molde 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.00 xG and Molde 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.655 / defence 1.280 | Molde attack 1.152 / defence 0.844. League average goals — home 1.805 / away 1.242. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.655 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Stabaek games / 52 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Molde 55%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 5.56 | Draw 3.70 | Molde 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Molde (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Molde as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Stabaek 40% | Molde 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Molde 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Stabaek 1.00 / Molde 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.655 / def 1.280 | Molde attack 1.152 / def 0.844 | league avg home 1.805 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Molde (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Molde xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Molde kick off?
Stabaek vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Stabaek 0 - 3 Molde.
Where is Stabaek vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Molde part of?
Stabaek vs Molde is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 18% chance of winning, Molde a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Stabaek and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 3W.
What form are Stabaek and Molde in?
Stabaek (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stabaek's attack rating (0.66) and Molde's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.15x) against Stabaek's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
18%
5.52
27%
3.68
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.83
1.83
Molde xG
5.52
18%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
3%
34.51
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.83 for Molde, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Molde?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stabaek come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 18D 21L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Molde sit at 2.04 PPG from 52 outings (33W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Molde carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Stabaek — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Stabaek's home form reads 7W 9D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Molde have taken 1.58 points per game from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Molde's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stabaek are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.52 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Molde
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Molde in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 13W 18D 21L in their last 52 games (1.10 PPG), while Molde have gone 33W 7D 12L in their last 52 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.15 PPG; Molde away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Molde in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-1 on 28 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
0
Draws
5
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Molde?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Molde have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Stabaek 0-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 42%, Molde 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Stabaek and 77% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Stabaek's games and 73% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stabaek vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Stabaek's matches and 77% of Molde's.
Do Stabaek and Molde tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Stabaek 0-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.00 xG and Molde 1.83 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Stabaek fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.66 / defence 1.28 against Molde attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 18% | Draw 27% | Molde 55%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Molde 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.