Molde vs Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Molde vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Molde and Bodo/Glimt meet at Aker Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Molde, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Molde's home record at Aker Stadion: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Aker Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Molde are significantly better at Aker Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.60 PPG clear of Molde in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.40 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Molde half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Molde 64% and Bodo/Glimt 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Molde 81% | Bodo/Glimt 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Molde 1.94 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Molde attack 1.460 / defence 0.919 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.286 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.776 / away 1.250. Molde carry an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.286 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Molde games / 52 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Molde 46% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 28%. Fair-value odds: Molde 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Bodo/Glimt 3.57. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Molde at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bodo/Glimt (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.41 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates are neutral: Molde 50% | Bodo/Glimt 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Molde vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Aker Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Molde 46% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Molde 1.94 / Bodo/Glimt 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Molde attack 1.460 / def 0.919 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.286 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.776 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Molde (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Molde xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Bodo/Glimt xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Molde vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Aker Stadion.
Where is Molde vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Aker Stadion.
What competition is Molde vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Molde vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Molde a 46% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Molde and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Molde vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Molde and Bodo/Glimt in?
Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Molde's attack rating (1.46) and Bodo/Glimt's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.29x) against Molde's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.85
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Molde xG
Total xG
3.41
1.48
Bodo/Glimt xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
4%
25.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Molde and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Molde and 1.48 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Molde vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Molde come into this having played 52 games, going 33W 7D 12L for 2.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Molde is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.46 PPG from 52 outings (40W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Molde — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Molde's home form reads 20W 2D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.48 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.04 PPG overall — Molde are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.24 points per game from 25 outings (17W 5D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Molde are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.87 scored and 1.00 conceded. Molde's scoring rate against Bodo/Glimt's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Molde have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Bodo/Glimt in 62%.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Molde
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Molde and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Molde have gone 33W 7D 12L in their last 52 games (2.04 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 40W 8D 4L in their last 52 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Molde at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Molde's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Molde at home: 2.48 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Molde or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Molde have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 1-4 on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Molde have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Molde
4
Draws
3
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Molde and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Molde have won 3, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Molde and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 0-1 Molde.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Molde 56%, Bodo/Glimt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Molde and 76% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Molde home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Molde play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Molde's games and 68% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Molde vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Molde's matches and 76% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Molde and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Molde have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Molde's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde and Bodo/Glimt finished level at 0-0 at Aker Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Molde 1.94 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.48 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Molde fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Molde attack 1.46 / defence 0.92 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.29 / defence 0.75, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Molde 46% | Draw 26% | Bodo/Glimt 28%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Molde 81%, Bodo/Glimt 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Molde's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 2.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.