Sandefjord 0-3 Viking – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sandefjord at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sandefjord face Viking.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Sandefjord welcome Viking to Jotun Arena in Eliteserien (matchday 9). Kick-off is Monday 20 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Sandefjord stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sandefjord at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Viking have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Viking have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sandefjord) versus 1.30 (Viking). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Sandefjord have won 1, Viking 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Sandefjord 3–4 Viking — a Viking win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Sandefjord in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.

Viking in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sandefjord 62% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sandefjord 73% | Viking 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sandefjord surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Viking have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sandefjord 1.80 xG and Viking 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandefjord attack 1.373 / defence 0.820 | Viking attack 0.980 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Sandefjord carry an above-average attack rating of 1.373 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sandefjord's last 37 games and Viking's last 38.

Result probabilities: Sandefjord 51% | Draw 23% | Viking 26%. Fair-value odds: Sandefjord 1.96 | Draw 4.32 | Viking 3.86. Sandefjord hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandefjord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sandefjord's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sandefjord 60% (last 10 home games) | Viking 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights