Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haugesund at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Marienlyst Stadion plays host to Stromsgodset versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Stromsgodset's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Marienlyst Stadion, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Haugesund have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Haugesund have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Haugesund, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–1 with Haugesund winning.
It is worth noting that Haugesund have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Stromsgodset half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Haugesund half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 48% versus Haugesund 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 55% | Haugesund 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.15 xG and Haugesund 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.887 / defence 0.868 | Haugesund attack 0.929 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Data: 38 Stromsgodset games / 38 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 38%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Haugesund 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haugesund are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haugesund if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Stromsgodset 60% | Haugesund 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Stromsgodset 1.15 / Haugesund 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.887 / def 0.868 | Haugesund attack 0.929 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Haugesund (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Haugesund xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Stromsgodset 2 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund part of?
Stromsgodset vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 34% chance of winning, Haugesund a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haugesund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Stromsgodset and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
Record (6 meetings): Stromsgodset 1W | Draws 1 | Haugesund 4W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Haugesund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.93x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haugesund Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.60
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.38
1.23
Haugesund xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.93
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.23 for Haugesund, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 22W 9D 29L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Haugesund's form line: 19W 14D 27L from 60 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.18 for Haugesund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (15W 3D 12L).
On the road, Haugesund have gone 6W 8D 16L from 30 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 1.27 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Haugesund
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 22W 9D 29L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Haugesund away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.60 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 3 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stromsgodset go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stromsgodset won 0-5 on 6 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Stromsgodset
2
Draws
4
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 4, Haugesund have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-0 Haugesund.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 57%, Haugesund 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Stromsgodset) and 50% (Haugesund). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Haugesund?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Stromsgodset's recent matches and 47% of Haugesund's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stromsgodset vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Stromsgodset's matches and 50% of Haugesund's.
Do Stromsgodset and Haugesund tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stromsgodset cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat Haugesund 2-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.15 xG and Haugesund 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Haugesund attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 34% | Draw 28% | Haugesund 38%, with Haugesund to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stromsgodset win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 55%, Haugesund 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.25 PPG, Haugesund 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.