Lillestrom 0-3 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Åråsen Stadion plays host to Lillestrom versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lillestrom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lillestrom have posted 6W 1D 3L at Åråsen Stadion — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Lillestrom are significantly better at Åråsen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lillestrom 0.94 xG and Fredrikstad 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lillestrom attack 0.870 / defence 1.275 | Fredrikstad attack 1.117 / defence 0.821. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.521. Data: 38 Lillestrom games / 8 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lillestrom 15% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 65%. Fair-value odds: Lillestrom 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Fredrikstad 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Åråsen Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 20 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lillestrom 15% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Lillestrom 0.94 / Fredrikstad 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lillestrom attack 0.870 / def 1.275 | Fredrikstad attack 1.117 / def 0.821 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.521 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Lillestrom xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Fredrikstad xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 May 2024 at Åråsen Stadion.
What was the final score in Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Lillestrom 0 - 3 Fredrikstad.
Where is Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Åråsen Stadion.
What competition is Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad part of?
Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Lillestrom a 15% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 65% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lillestrom and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Fredrikstad?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lillestrom and Fredrikstad in?
Lillestrom (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Lillestrom home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lillestrom's attack at 0.87x the league average against Fredrikstad's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (1.12x) against Lillestrom's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
15%
6.55
19%
5.14
65%
1.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Lillestrom xG
Total xG
3.11
2.17
Fredrikstad xG
6.55
15%
Home win
5.14
19%
Draw
1.53
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
11%
8.72
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
2%
57.13
25%
3.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Lillestrom and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Lillestrom and 2.17 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lillestrom
Pre-Season
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 0-3 on 20 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Lillestrom
0
Draws
2
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lillestrom and Fredrikstad?
From 3 meetings on record, Lillestrom have won 1, Fredrikstad have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lillestrom and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Fredrikstad 0-2 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Lillestrom and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lillestrom home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Fredrikstad run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Lillestrom 0-3 at Åråsen Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lillestrom 0.94 xG and Fredrikstad 2.17 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lillestrom fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Fredrikstad outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lillestrom attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Fredrikstad attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lillestrom 15% | Draw 19% | Fredrikstad 65%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.