Waalwijk 2-2 Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utrecht at 34% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waalwijk vs Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Mandemakers Stadion plays host to Waalwijk versus Utrecht in Eredivisie (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Waalwijk have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Utrecht (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Utrecht have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Utrecht arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Waalwijk, 1 for Utrecht and 4 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Waalwijk 1–1 Utrecht — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Waalwijk — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Utrecht — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 56% versus Utrecht 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 59% | Utrecht 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.19 xG and Utrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.755 / defence 0.903 | Utrecht attack 0.927 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.422. Waalwijk's attack rating of 0.755 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from Waalwijk's last 64 games and Utrecht's last 64.
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 34% | Draw 32% | Utrecht 34%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 2.96 | Draw 3.09 | Utrecht 2.96. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 34% to win, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Waalwijk 34% and Utrecht 34%, with the draw at 32%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Waalwijk 60% (last 10 home games) | Utrecht 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Utrecht | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 31 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 34% | Draw 32% | Utrecht 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Waalwijk 1.19 / Utrecht 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.755 / def 0.903 | Utrecht attack 0.927 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Waalwijk and Utrecht level at 34% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Utrecht xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht FAQs
What time does Waalwijk vs Utrecht kick off?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Waalwijk 2 - 2 Utrecht.
Where is Waalwijk vs Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Utrecht part of?
Waalwijk vs Utrecht is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 31) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 34% chance of winning, Utrecht a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Waalwijk and Utrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waalwijk vs Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.76x the league average against Utrecht's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Utrecht's attack (0.93x) against Waalwijk's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Waalwijk's last 64 games and Utrecht's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utrecht Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.09
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
2.38
1.19
Utrecht xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Waalwijk and 1.19 for Utrecht, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Utrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Waalwijk have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 17W 14D 33L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Utrecht's form line: 28W 16D 20L from 64 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Utrecht are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Waalwijk have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 32 home games (13W 7D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Utrecht have gone 13W 7D 12L from their last 32 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Waalwijk are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Utrecht are on 1.53 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
Waalwijk (Home) vs Utrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waalwijk
Current Season
Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht Form FAQs
What form are Waalwijk and Utrecht in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 17W 14D 33L in their last 64 games (1.02 PPG), while Utrecht have gone 28W 16D 20L in their last 64 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Utrecht away?
Waalwijk's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.44 PPG; Utrecht away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Waalwijk and Utrecht, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Utrecht have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Utrecht won Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht on 25 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 3D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
5
Draws
3
Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Waalwijk have won 0, Utrecht have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Utrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Waalwijk 0-4 Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Utrecht?
Utrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Utrecht 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Waalwijk) and 56% (Utrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utrecht in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waalwijk vs Utrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waalwijk and Utrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 50% of Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waalwijk and Utrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Waalwijk's matches and 56% of Utrecht's.
Do Waalwijk and Utrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Waalwijk's recent matches and 72% of Utrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waalwijk and Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 31, as Waalwijk and Utrecht drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.19 xG and Utrecht 1.19 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Utrecht outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.76 / defence 0.90 against Utrecht attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 34% | Draw 32% | Utrecht 34%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 59%, Utrecht 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Utrecht's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Utrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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