Telstar 2-3 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Telstar at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Telstar vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Emmen travel to 711 Stadion to take on Telstar. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Telstar stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at 711 Stadion, Telstar have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Emmen have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Telstar are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Telstar register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Telstar, 2 for Emmen and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Emmen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Telstar trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Emmen trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 51% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 49% | Emmen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 2.41 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 1.148 / defence 0.935 | Emmen attack 0.917 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.408. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Telstar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 Telstar games / 34 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 64% | Draw 19% | Emmen 17%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Emmen 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Telstar (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Emmen lead the H2H ledger, but Telstar carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Telstar at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 80% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 64% | Draw 19% | Emmen 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 64% | xG Telstar 2.41 / Emmen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 1.148 / def 0.935 | Emmen attack 0.917 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Telstar (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Emmen xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Emmen kick off?
Telstar vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Emmen?
Telstar 2 - 3 Emmen.
Where is Telstar vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Emmen part of?
Telstar vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 64% chance of winning, Emmen a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Telstar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Telstar and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Emmen?
Record (3 meetings): Telstar 0W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Telstar and Emmen in?
Telstar (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Emmen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Telstar's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Emmen's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Telstar's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Telstar Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.33
17%
5.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.62
1.21
Emmen xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
5.73
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
9%
11.17
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
2%
64.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Telstar and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Telstar and 1.21 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Telstar have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 23W 17D 32L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Emmen's form line: 21W 16D 35L from 72 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Telstar on 1.19 PPG, Emmen on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Telstar have posted 1.50 PPG from 36 outings (15W 9D 12L).
On the road, Emmen have gone 9W 5D 22L from 36 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Telstar are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.21 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Emmen in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 23W 17D 32L in their last 72 games (1.19 PPG), while Emmen have gone 21W 16D 35L in their last 72 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Emmen away?
Telstar's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.50 PPG; Emmen away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Telstar and Emmen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Telstar have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2025, when Telstar won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Telstar's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Telstar
1
Draws
3
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Telstar have won 2, Emmen have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Telstar 3-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Telstar and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 58%, Emmen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Telstar and 69% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 28% of games; Emmen in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Telstar's games and 64% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Telstar's matches and 69% of Emmen's.
Do Telstar and Emmen tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Emmen in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Telstar 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Telstar 2-3 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.41 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Emmen outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.15 / defence 0.94 against Emmen attack 0.92 / defence 1.30, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 64% | Draw 19% | Emmen 17%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Emmen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 49%, Emmen 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.19 PPG, Emmen 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.