FC Eindhoven 1-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Telstar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Telstar travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 11:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Eindhoven's home record at Jan Louwers Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Telstar — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Telstar's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Telstar's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of FC Eindhoven's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of FC Eindhoven: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Telstar, with 1 draws across those contests.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The historical record gives FC Eindhoven a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Telstar in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 55% versus Telstar 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 51% | Telstar 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.47 xG and Telstar 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.726 / defence 1.353 | Telstar attack 0.750 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.394. FC Eindhoven's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.47 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Telstar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing FC Eindhoven's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 FC Eindhoven games / 73 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 38% | Draw 27% | Telstar 35%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Telstar 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
FC Eindhoven dominate the H2H record, yet Telstar are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Telstar (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FC Eindhoven 40% | Telstar 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 38% | Draw 27% | Telstar 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.47 / Telstar 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.726 / def 1.353 | Telstar attack 0.750 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Telstar xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Telstar kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Telstar kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Telstar.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Telstar part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 38% chance of winning, Telstar a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Telstar?
Record (5 meetings): FC Eindhoven 4W | Draws 1 | Telstar 0W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Telstar in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Telstar (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (0.73) and Telstar's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Telstar's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.64
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.89
1.42
Telstar xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
9%
10.96
8%
12.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.42 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Telstar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 23W 25D 25L from 73 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Telstar, meanwhile, have gone 23W 17D 33L across 73 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.29 PPG, Telstar on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 13W 11D 12L from 36 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Telstar's away record stands at 8W 8D 20L across 36 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.12 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Telstar
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Telstar in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 23W 25D 25L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Telstar have gone 23W 17D 33L in their last 73 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Telstar away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.39 PPG; Telstar away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and Telstar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2025, when Telstar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Telstar specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
1
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Telstar?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 5, Telstar have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when FC Eindhoven 0-4 Telstar.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Telstar?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 50%, Telstar 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Eindhoven) and 44% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 28% of games; Telstar in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 44% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 44% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Telstar tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Telstar in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Telstar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven and Telstar finished level at 1-1 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.47 xG and Telstar 1.42 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.73 / defence 1.35 against Telstar attack 0.75 / defence 1.24, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 38% | Draw 27% | Telstar 35%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 51%, Telstar 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Telstar's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.29 PPG, Telstar 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.