Roda 1-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 35 as Roda welcome De Graafschap to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 7W 3D 0L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.60 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Roda have won 3, De Graafschap 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Roda in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus De Graafschap 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 54% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.26 xG and De Graafschap 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.219 / defence 0.808 | De Graafschap attack 1.022 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.408. Data: 72 Roda games / 72 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 62% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 18%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | De Graafschap 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Roda (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.26 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | De Graafschap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 62% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Roda 2.26 / De Graafschap 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 1.219 / def 0.808 | De Graafschap attack 1.022 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Roda (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.16
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs De Graafschap kick off?
Roda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Roda 1 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Roda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs De Graafschap part of?
Roda vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 62% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Roda and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in?
Roda (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Roda's attack rating (1.22) and De Graafschap's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
62%
1.62
20%
5.04
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Roda xG
Total xG
3.42
1.16
De Graafschap xG
1.62
62%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
10%
9.57
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
2%
52.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Roda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Roda and 1.16 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Roda's recent record stands at 32W 17D 23L from 72 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 33W 11D 28L across 72 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.57 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Roda have managed 20W 7D 9L from 36 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 13W 6D 17L across 36 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Roda are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.64 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 32W 17D 23L in their last 72 games (1.57 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 33W 11D 28L in their last 72 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or De Graafschap away?
Roda's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.86 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Roda and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Roda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2021, when Roda won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Roda
2
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 5, De Graafschap have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when De Graafschap 2-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and De Graafschap?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 64%, De Graafschap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 72% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Roda's games and 64% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do Roda and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and De Graafschap share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 35, as Roda and De Graafschap drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.26 xG and De Graafschap 1.16 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Roda fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.22 / defence 0.81 against De Graafschap attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 62% | Draw 20% | De Graafschap 18%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 54%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.57 PPG, De Graafschap 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.