Pisa 3-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Feralpisalo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pisa host Feralpisalo at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Feralpisalo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Feralpisalo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Pisa) versus 1.10 (Feralpisalo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pisa register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Feralpisalo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Pisa, 0 for Feralpisalo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pisa in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 66% versus Feralpisalo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 50% | Feralpisalo 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.58 xG and Feralpisalo 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.166 / defence 1.126 | Feralpisalo attack 0.934 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.244. Data: 70 Pisa games / 32 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 30%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Feralpisalo 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Feralpisalo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 42% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Pisa 1.58 / Feralpisalo 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.166 / def 1.126 | Feralpisalo attack 0.934 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Feralpisalo xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Pisa vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Feralpisalo?
Pisa 3 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Pisa vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Feralpisalo part of?
Pisa vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 42% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pisa and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Feralpisalo?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 0 | Feralpisalo 0W.
What form are Pisa and Feralpisalo in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Feralpisalo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.17x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.61
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.89
1.31
Feralpisalo xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.5 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Pisa and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Pisa and 1.31 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa's recent record stands at 10W 10D 12L from 32 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 17L across 32 games — 0.97 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.25 PPG, Feralpisalo on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 5W 6D 5L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 5W 3D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 1.16 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Feralpisalo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 10W 10D 12L in their last 32 games (1.25 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 8W 7D 17L in their last 32 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Feralpisalo away?
Pisa's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.31 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Pisa
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Pisa 3-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Feralpisalo?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 75%, Feralpisalo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Pisa) and 50% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Feralpisalo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Pisa's games and 50% of Feralpisalo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Pisa's recent games and 50% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Feralpisalo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Feralpisalo 3-1 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.58 xG and Feralpisalo 1.31 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Pisa beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.17 / defence 1.13 against Feralpisalo attack 0.93 / defence 1.08, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 42% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 30%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 50%, Feralpisalo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.25 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.