Bari 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 37%, yet in-form Pisa provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bari vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pisa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bari, 0 for Pisa and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 49% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 49% versus Pisa 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 35% | Pisa 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.32 xG and Pisa 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.874 / defence 1.000 | Pisa attack 1.001 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.215. Pisa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Bari games / 71 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 30% | Pisa 33%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 50% | Pisa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 37% | Draw 30% | Pisa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Bari 1.32 / Pisa 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.874 / def 1.000 | Pisa attack 1.001 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Bari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Pisa kick off?
Bari vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Pisa?
Bari 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Bari vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Pisa part of?
Bari vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 37% chance of winning, Pisa a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bari and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
Record (3 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 2 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Bari and Pisa in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.33
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bari xG
Total xG
2.54
1.22
Pisa xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
11.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Bari and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bari and 1.22 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Bari have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 26D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 22W 24D 25L from 71 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.38 PPG, Pisa on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (13W 14D 8L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 9W 13D 13L from 35 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Pisa in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 24W 26D 21L in their last 71 games (1.38 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 24D 25L in their last 71 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Pisa away?
Bari's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.51 PPG; Pisa away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Bari 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Pisa?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 49% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 49%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bari) and 40% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Pisa in 34%; Bari have failed to score in 31% of games; Pisa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Bari's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bari's recent games and 40% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bari and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 34, as Bari and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.32 xG and Pisa 1.22 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Pisa attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 37% | Draw 30% | Pisa 33%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 35%, Pisa 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.38 PPG, Pisa 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.