Venezia 2-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Brescia at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Venezia at 1.70 PPG versus Brescia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Venezia have won 0, Brescia 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Brescia in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 62% versus Brescia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 59% | Brescia 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.72 xG and Brescia 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 1.418 / defence 1.230 | Brescia attack 0.957 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.217. Venezia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 Venezia games / 70 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 43% | Draw 26% | Brescia 31%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Brescia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 80% | Brescia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 43% | Draw 26% | Brescia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Venezia 1.72 / Brescia 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 1.418 / def 1.230 | Brescia attack 0.957 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Venezia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Brescia xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Brescia kick off?
Venezia vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Brescia?
Venezia 2 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Venezia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Brescia part of?
Venezia vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 43% chance of winning, Brescia a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Venezia and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 3 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Venezia and Brescia in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Venezia's attack rating (1.42) and Brescia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.90
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.16
1.43
Brescia xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.19
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
6%
18.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Venezia and 1.43 for Brescia, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 30W 17D 24L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 19W 26D 26L from 71 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.51 PPG, Brescia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Venezia have posted 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 8W 13D 14L from 35 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.03 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 30W 17D 24L in their last 71 games (1.51 PPG), while Brescia have gone 19W 26D 26L in their last 71 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Brescia away?
Venezia's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.69 PPG; Brescia away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Brescia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
3
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Brescia have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Venezia 2-0 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Brescia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 71%, Brescia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Venezia) and 40% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Brescia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 57% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Venezia's recent games and 40% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Brescia tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Brescia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Brescia 2-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.72 xG and Brescia 1.43 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brescia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 1.42 / defence 1.23 against Brescia attack 0.96 / defence 0.98, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 43% | Draw 26% | Brescia 31%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 59%, Brescia 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Brescia's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.51 PPG, Brescia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.