Panserraikos 2-1 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Asteras Tripolis at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Panserraikos face Asteras Tripolis.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Asteras Tripolis in Super League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Panserraikos's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Panserraikos have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Asteras Tripolis (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Asteras Tripolis away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Panserraikos edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Mar 2024, ended Panserraikos 2–0 Asteras Tripolis — a Panserraikos win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Asteras Tripolis half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 51% versus Asteras Tripolis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 51% | Asteras Tripolis 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.27 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 1.029 / defence 1.220 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.926 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.222. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.220 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Asteras Tripolis's projected output up. Data: built from Panserraikos's last 38 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 38.
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 33% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 38%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.00 | Draw 3.54 | Asteras Tripolis 2.60. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Asteras Tripolis as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Asteras Tripolis if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Panserraikos 60% (last 10 home games) | Asteras Tripolis 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 33% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Panserraikos 1.27 / Asteras Tripolis 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 1.029 / def 1.220 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.926 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Asteras Tripolis (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis FAQs
What time does Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Panserraikos 2 - 1 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 33% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Asteras Tripolis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panserraikos's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Asteras Tripolis's attack (0.93x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Panserraikos's last 38 games and Asteras Tripolis's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Asteras Tripolis Win
33%
3.00
28%
3.54
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.65
1.38
Asteras Tripolis xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
8%
11.96
11%
9.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.7 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.38 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panserraikos's recent record stands at 13W 12D 20L from 45 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Asteras Tripolis, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 21L across 45 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Panserraikos against 1.20 for Asteras Tripolis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panserraikos have managed 8W 8D 6L from their last 22 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Asteras Tripolis's away record stands at 8W 4D 10L across their last 22 away games, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panserraikos are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
Panserraikos (Home) vs Asteras Tripolis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Panserraikos
Blended
Asteras Tripolis
Blended
❓ Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis Form FAQs
What form are Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 15W 9D 21L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Panserraikos's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.45 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Asteras Tripolis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Panserraikos
1
Draws
2
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Panserraikos have won 6, Asteras Tripolis have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Asteras Tripolis 1-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Asteras Tripolis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 59%, Asteras Tripolis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panserraikos) and 50% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Asteras Tripolis in 32%; Asteras Tripolis in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Panserraikos vs Asteras Tripolis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panserraikos's recent games and 50% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Asteras Tripolis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 64% of Asteras Tripolis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Asteras Tripolis 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.27 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.38 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 33% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 38%, with Asteras Tripolis to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Panserraikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 51%, Asteras Tripolis 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panserraikos 1.13 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panserraikos win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.